Who may have predicted what 2025 would convey? Because the authorized career kicked off final yr, we anticipated one other tour de power of Biglaw standing up for these focused by the Trump administration like the firms did in 2017, we figured that AI hallucinations would change into a factor of the previous as legal professionals learned from others, and we felt assured that at the very least we wouldn’t be speaking about summer associates biting people at elite law firms.
We flopped on all of these.
Actually, this yr managed to throw doubt on the Third, Fourteenth, and Twenty-Second Amendments, foiling many a 2025 Bingo card.
However 2026 is a brand new yr! With hours to go on this steaming dumpster hearth of a yr in authorized, allow us to usher within the subsequent yr with a bolus of positivity and gaze into our crystal balls to foretell the various methods the authorized career will make the world higher over the approaching yr. Although to keep away from the graveyard of whiffed predictions we’ll talk about this time subsequent yr, let’s focus solely on the predictions that in any rational career would come true in 2026, with the total understanding that — as legal professionals — completely none of it will truly occur.
The Demise Of The Billable Hour
Rumors of the billable hour’s demise have been tremendously exaggerated for many years. Forecasting the top of hourly billing is an inexpensive manner to boost a prediction roundup. The thousand, “nicely, truly, the billable hour isn’t going anyplace” takes this merchandise will set off generates sufficient smug self-satisfaction to maintain places of work heat for weeks. However there’s one thing totally different about it this time, proper? Well-known final phrases within the prediction racket… however that’s why we’re centered on predictions that aren’t going to come back true.
Billing by the hour remained strong in 2025, and doubtless will into 2026. But it surely has proven some cracks and the chisel is the rising adoption of synthetic intelligence.
Each earlier loss of life sentence for time-based billing rested upon shopper strain and agency competitors, two components that grossly underestimate the authorized career’s worry and laziness. Or “warning” or “dedication to custom” or no matter kinder euphemism you need. Shoppers might need thought different charge preparations made extra sense, but it surely’s daunting work to go to the Board and justify handing over lump sums of cash when hourly billing is a tried and true methodology. And companies might need needed to hunt some benefit over their rivals by providing much less burdensome pricing, but it surely’s scary to decide to a set value that might depart the agency underpaid on an project.
Synthetic intelligence offers an exogenous kick within the ass. In keeping with the Harbor Law Department Survey, shoppers spent 2025 leaping on the AI bandwagon. Some 85 percent of corporate legal teams now have dedicated AI resources, they usually’re utilizing that newfound capability as leverage to demand different charge preparations, consolidate their panels, and pull work in-house. Exterior counsel spending projections cratered from 58 p.c anticipating will increase to only 37 p.c. On the similar time, legislation companies have watched AI eat into lots of the time-consuming duties that was the bread and butter of legislation agency leverage. A DISCO white paper discovered that at the same time as legislation companies embrace AI instruments, there’s one lingering worry: “the premise that speed will reduce revenue remains a challenge.”
Ethics guidelines stop legislation companies from billing for the time that might need been in an alternate universe with out an AI instrument crunching deposition transcripts. Whereas shoppers would like to see the agency’s 300 hour invoice drop to 30, legislation companies aren’t within the enterprise of gifting away cash like that.
Legislation companies lastly face real strain to work out the worth of the output as a substitute of charging shoppers for inputs.
However as a substitute, they’ll most likely simply adopt a $10,000 billable hour. As a result of if legal professionals invented the interior combustion engine, we’d be driving mechanical horses as a substitute of automobiles.
Legislation Colleges Finish The Accelerated Recruiting Pipeline
Bear in mind when legislation college grades mattered? Possibly not for the Yalies on the market, however for the remainder of us. Again within the day, employers truly waited to see how college students carried out earlier than hiring them.
“OK Boomer,” say present legislation college students.
But it surely’s true! We used to attend for a complete yr’s price of grades earlier than getting a suggestion for the summer season earlier than 3L yr. The present legislation college recruiting timeline now begins roughly fifteen minutes after orientation. Biglaw has began handing out offers before students finish their first final, changing grades with vibe recruiting — full with companies handing out walking around money to college students that they’ve already labored with, asking these older college students to determine and recruit promising potential summers.
The bizarre half is that no one desires this. The legislation colleges hate it. The legislation companies aren’t passionate about it. The scholars are overwhelmed. And but nobody can do something about it.
Any answer would contain collective motion — from both the legislation colleges, the legislation companies, or each — and nobody seems keen to danger being accused of collusion. With out motion from the members on this disaster, the one different could be the regulators. If state licensing authorities created some kind of minimal test on legislation clerk {qualifications} it may put the brakes on the accelerated cycle, however the strain on licensing is at present arrayed towards lowering obstacles to follow quite than imposing extra.
In a sane 2026, the legislation colleges handle to get collectively and impose a requirement that companies can’t recruit college students till the primary semester grades arrive.
The Supreme Courtroom Will Go Again To Writing Precise Opinions As an alternative Of Publish-It Notes
In a most likely apocryphal story, Andrew Jackson mentioned of the Supreme Courtroom, “John Marshall has made his resolution; now let him implement it.” And that was earlier than a bunch of late-Nineteen Seventies, early-Eighties legislation evaluate articles invented “unitary government idea.”
Even when the Jackson quote by no means truly occurred, the purpose stays sound: the Supreme Courtroom’s authority derives solely from the persuasive energy of its written opinions. That’s it. 9 unelected folks in robes reshape American life as a result of we collectively settle for that they’ve issued reasoned opinions.
Confronted with the daunting process of imposing concepts just like the unitary government idea — ideas divorced from any affordable textual or historic studying — the present Courtroom merely disbursed with the “persuasive energy of written opinions” factor and determined to only concern rulings below the doctrine of “as a result of we mentioned so.”
The shadow docket turned the first car for reshaping American legislation this yr, with terse orders issued with out briefing, argument, or clarification. As soon as upon a time, these orders had been understood to be glorified preliminary injunctions, however this yr the Supreme Courtroom majority voiced its frustration when decrease courts saved making use of precise written precedent as a substitute of divining the vibes from unsigned orders. Calvinball par excellence. It most likely doesn’t damage that issuing all their rulings this manner affords them flexibility to run it all back under a future Democratic president and say, “maintain on, we didn’t truly RULE on any of these things.”
The Supreme Courtroom majority’s embrace of legislating by post-it observe carries harmful penalties. Several federal judges called bullshit, inserting the rise in violent threats geared toward decrease court docket justices partially on the Supreme Courtroom’s unwillingness to articulate its choices. When SCOTUS overturns decrease courts with out explaining itself, it permits the administration free rein to tug judges as wild-eyed activists worthy of going to “war” against. As one choose instructed NBC Information: “They don’t have our backs.”
Because the threats mount and the administration locations the Supreme Courtroom in more and more uncomfortable positions with its loony requests, 2026 ought to convey out the latent delight of the Courtroom’s conservatives.
The bulk made its resolution; now allow them to clarify it.
However they received’t.
Extra States Will Think about Sidelining The Bar Examination
The bar examination is a flaming sack of Scantron-bubbled rubbish. We’ve identified this for many years. It’s a generalist examination in an period of specialists. It’s a doctrinal reminiscence check in a career that — rightly — considers practising off the dome as malpractice. The bar examination exists to restrict the availability of attorneys and shield incumbents from competitors.
This yr, Utah went ahead and created an truly wise different licensing path. Think about an examination primarily based on the precept that an skilled, competent lawyer ought to be capable of move it with out learning… as a result of that’s what minimal competence would recommend. What an idea!
Utah’s proposal permits potential legal professionals to interchange the bar examination with a mix of formal schooling, supervised skilled expertise, and this actual minimal competence examination.
Different states ought to observe. However then we wouldn’t have as many Rule Towards Perpetuities jokes.
Biglaw Companies Understand That Cooperation With Authoritarianism Isn’t Sustainable
All through 2025, Biglaw companies largely operated between the artwork of strategic quiet and energetic collaboration.
After legislation companies annoyed his first time period’s wildest acts of overreach, Trump entered the White Home in 2025 in full “kill all of the legal professionals” mode. Firing off government orders designed to destroy international legislation companies, Trump managed to get his want with 9 Biglaw companies confessing previous disloyalty to the crown and pledging tens of millions in pro bono commitments to conservative causes. Different companies took the chance to erase references to diversity or other vaguely progressive work from their web sites. And lots of extra simply stopped representing vulnerable clients facing the administration’s wrath.
The surrendering companies took their lumps. Paul Weiss chair Brad Karp got heckled at a Bar Foundation gala, with one other attendee yelling “FOR TRUMP?!” each time he talked about their public service accomplishments. Younger legal professionals were not happy. Shoppers pulled enterprise from companies that showed no willingness to stand up for themselves.
When all of it shakes out, the companies will probably finish the yr no worse for the ordeal.
The authorized career is meant to be the final line of protection for the rule of legislation. Legal professionals in different international locations have marched via tear gasoline to defend judicial independence. A lot of America’s most elite authorized establishments may barely muster a strongly worded op-ed.
However the factor about Faustian bargains is that they’re hardly ever one-time transactions. As we warned when these deals were announced, coping with a nasty religion actor means they personal you. Even when they don’t alter the deal additional, the worry guides the connection.
Maybe the administration has moved on from harassing legislation companies. Most likely not although. In 2026, we must always see companies begin pushing again in opposition to the White Home.
Nonetheless, given the anticipated financials from the surrendering companies, it’s extra probably different companies resolve complicity has its perks.
Legal professionals Will Cease Falling For AI Hallucinations
Truthfully, one would’ve thought legal professionals may’ve cleared this one in 2025, however apparently not. When the primary AI hallucination story broke in 2023, the extraordinary public ridicule led many to consider the entire career had been duly chastened. Some 700 hallucination filings later, that didn’t pan out.
AI burned legal professionals throughout the business this yr. The MyPillow lawyers got dinged. K&L Gates and Ellis George acquired dinged. Butler Snow got kicked off a case. A California court docket declined to award fees to opposing counsel for failing to spot the opposite facet’s faux citations. The judges acquired in on the motion too. A Georgia case acquired determined primarily based off of hallucinated caselaw. Two federal judges had to withdraw hallucinated opinions.
This shouldn’t be onerous. The rule is easy: when you cite a case, confirm that the case exists. This was true earlier than AI. It’s true after AI. The existence of a expertise that confidently fabricates sources doesn’t relieve you of the duty to test your work.
Everybody understands this in idea. However in follow, AI may well be making us dumber.
This could finish in 2026. Between technological advances to cut back hallucinations and legal professionals rightfully nervous about their reputations, this could finish.
However I mentioned that of 2025 too.
Kim Kardashian Will Lastly Give Up On The Bar Examination
Kim Kardashian’s ongoing quest to change into a lawyer via California’s apprenticeship program hasn’t labored out to date. She failed the bar exam.
Regardless that the psychics promised she’d pass.
The bar examination is a problematic skilled gatekeeper, however Kardashian is the best argument for the existence of an exam of some form. Not the silly one we have now, but when the system goes to permit a path to licensure that doesn’t run via legislation college there needs to be a check of real minimal competence. Maybe she may strive her hand at Utah’s new system?
However assuming California isn’t junking the bar examination — they usually’ve already disastrously tried to fix the bar exam after which dedicated to the worst of all doable outcomes by going BACK to the old bar exam — may 2026 be the yr that Kardashian refuses to maintain investing her power on this busted system?
Kardashian desires to assist the wrongfully convicted and excessively sentenced, and one of the simplest ways for her to do this is to maintain being a billionaire and funding the legal professionals who’re already on the market doing this essential work. There must be no disgrace in turning into the deep pocketed philanthropist behind a noble trigger.
The Kim Kardashian Heart For Justice has a pleasant ring to it.
The Level Of All This
The authorized career has a outstanding capability to determine issues after which do completely nothing about them. However we will hope. Hey, typically, if folks maintain declaring the fitting path loudly and repeatedly, issues can change.
Possibly in 2027.
Joe Patrice is a senior editor at Above the Legislation and co-host of Thinking Like A Lawyer. Be happy to email any suggestions, questions, or feedback. Comply with him on Twitter or Bluesky when you’re serious about legislation, politics, and a wholesome dose of faculty sports activities information. Joe additionally serves as a Managing Director at RPN Executive Search.
