by Songlin Tang
Jinan, China (SPX) Jan 13, 2026
As world power transitions speed up, distributed photovoltaic techniques have turn out to be a cornerstone of rural power transformation in China, shifting many rural households from passive power customers to energetic prosumers.
A analysis workforce from the College of Economics at Shandong Know-how and Enterprise College has developed a multi agent dynamic recreation mannequin to investigate how key stakeholders in rural distributed PV techniques work together and make strategic choices.
The mannequin focuses on 4 core stakeholders within the rural PV ecosystem: village organizations, PV enterprises, grid firms, and rural households, capturing their completely different incentives and constraints inside a unified analytical framework.
“The agricultural distributed PV ecosystem is a fancy community of interactions,” mentioned corresponding writer Songlin Tang. “Our mannequin captures the heterogeneity of rural households and the important function of grid firms, filling gaps in earlier analysis that missed these key components.”
State of affairs simulations utilizing the mannequin yielded three principal insights for rural PV growth, beginning with the significance of collaboration between PV enterprises and village organizations to advertise the excess electrical energy feed in mannequin.
The evaluation signifies that rural households with low electrical energy demand are inclined to favor a full feed in mannequin the place all generated electrical energy is provided to the grid, whereas greater demand households favor the excess feed in method that helps self consumption alongside grid gross sales.
A second discovering warns that aggressive promotion of the excess electrical energy feed in mannequin can enhance the danger of curtailment, significantly when grid capability and family demand are usually not aligned with rising put in capability.
“Growing self consumption necessities helps cut back waste, however it could additionally restrict whole put in capability,” Tang defined. “Discovering the appropriate steadiness is important for environment friendly power use.”
The third main discovering highlights that rising rural family incomes assist larger funding in surplus electrical energy feed in tasks, however bodily grid capability finally constrains the effectivity and scale of this funding.
In accordance with the examine, grid upgrades that aren’t matched by corresponding progress in electrical energy demand result in inefficient use of capital, reinforcing the conclusion that grid capability stays the decisive issue for long run growth.
The researchers examined a number of technique mixtures and concluded that PV enterprises usually obtain greater profitability via tools gross sales slightly than direct long run undertaking funding in rural areas.
Village organizations profit extra after they cooperate intently with PV enterprises on promotion and undertaking group, utilizing their native data to scale back info asymmetry and speed up adoption amongst households.
Sensitivity analyses within the examine present that each family earnings and grid improve prices play pivotal roles in shaping adoption patterns, funding decisions, and curtailment dangers throughout completely different family varieties.
Increased earnings households are extra keen to put money into PV techniques below the excess feed in mannequin, whereas low earnings households that undertake this mannequin face a larger chance of curtailment as a result of their decrease electrical energy demand leaves extra surplus power uncovered to grid constraints.
“The examine supplies a scientific foundation for coverage design,” Tang mentioned. “We suggest deepening village enterprise cooperation, establishing dynamic self consumption ratio mechanisms primarily based on grid capability, and implementing regionally differentiated growth methods.”
The workforce expects that focused cooperation mechanisms may help tailor undertaking buildings to native circumstances, together with variations in earnings ranges, load profiles, and grid capabilities amongst rural areas.
Trying forward, the researchers plan to develop the sport mannequin to incorporate evolving coverage subsidy frameworks and the rising function of power storage applied sciences in smoothing technology and demand mismatches.
In addition they goal to conduct empirical exams in particular rural areas, utilizing actual world undertaking knowledge to validate and refine the mannequin’s assumptions and to higher translate the theoretical findings into sensible suggestions for rural power planners.
This analysis was supported by the Normal Challenge of the Nationwide Social Science Fund of China, “Analysis on the Pathway of Rural Vitality Transition in China from the Prosumer Perspective” (21BJY113), and by the Scientific Analysis Begin up Fund Challenge of Shandong Know-how and Enterprise College, “Mechanism and Pathway of Low carbon Transition within the Energy Sector from a Regional Coordination Perspective” (306657).
Analysis Report:Research on the behavioral mechanisms of rural distributed photovoltaic development: A view of prosumer perspective
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