As Bangladesh prepares to carry its first elections for the reason that overthrow of then-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League get together in 2024, neighbours India, Pakistan and China are watching intently.
Bangladesh is presently being ruled by an interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. The 2 important events competing for energy on this month’s polls are the Bangladesh Nationalist Celebration (BNP) and the Jamaat-e-Islami (JIB), each of which started campaigning in late January.
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The Awami League, which has traditionally had shut ties with India, has been barred from these elections due to its position within the brutal crackdown on student-led protests in 2024. Hasina, 78, presently in exile in India, was discovered responsible of permitting deadly pressure for use in opposition to protesters, 1,400 of whom died in the course of the unrest.
She was tried in absentia by the Worldwide Crimes Tribunal (ICT) in Bangladesh in November final 12 months – and sentenced to loss of life – however to this point India has refused to extradite her.
Hasina has denounced the upcoming elections, telling The Related Press information company final month that “a authorities born of exclusion can not unite a divided nation”.
Since her ousting, political analysts say, Bangladesh’s geopolitical positions have undergone a “paradigm shift”.
“Bilateral relations with India have witnessed a historic low in distinction to a heat rapprochement with Pakistan. Moreover, strategic ties with China have deepened considerably,” Khandakar Tahmid Rejwan, lecturer of worldwide research and governance on the Impartial College, Bangladesh, instructed Al Jazeera
“[Hasina’s] 15-year tenure was marked by a number of key options that outlined the international and safety coverage of Dhaka by way of exterior engagement. Important amongst these options have been creating a detailed and holistic bilateral tie with India; strategic negligence and diplomatic isolation by way of bilateral relations with Pakistan; and sustaining a robust however calculated defence, commerce, and infrastructure improvement partnership with China,” he mentioned.
“This predictive and patterned alignment of Dhaka has now been reversed with respect to India and Pakistan or revised with respect to China,” he mentioned.
So, how do India, Pakistan and China see the upcoming elections? Does the election consequence matter to those three nations?
Right here’s what we all know:
How are India-Bangladesh relations?
Till the toppling of Hasina, India largely seen Bangladesh as an necessary strategic accomplice and ally with respect to sustaining safety in South Asia.
India can be Bangladesh’s largest buying and selling accomplice in Asia. Between April 2023 and March 2024, earlier than Hasina’s ousting, India bought items, together with textiles, tea, espresso, auto components, electrical energy, agriculture, iron and metal and plastics, value $11.1bn and imported readymade clothes, leather-based and leather-based merchandise, amongst different gadgets, value $1.8bn.
Since Hasina fled to India, each nations have imposed restrictions on one another’s exports, from land and sea, as a result of ongoing tensions.
Over the a long time since Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan, which India supported in 1971, their relationship has had ups and downs relying on which political get together is in energy in Dhaka.
Hasina, who served as prime minister from 1996 to 2001 and once more from 2009 to 2024, maintained shut ties with India.
“Within the final 5 to 6 years, India and Bangladesh have scripted a golden chapter of bilateral ties and given a brand new dimension and route to our partnership,” India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in March 2020.
However opposition events in Bangladesh typically criticised Hasina for being “very weak” when it got here to coping with India.
In accordance with the Indian day by day Financial Instances, in 2016, a key BNP adviser referred to as on Hasina to scrap sure three way partnership power-sharing tasks with India since they could possibly be detrimental to Bangladesh’s surroundings.
For many years, the BNP has additionally had an alliance with JIB, Bangladesh’s largest Islamist group that advocates for stronger ties with Pakistan, India’s archenemy, and that opposed Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan in 1971.
Anti-India sentiment gained momentum in Bangladesh after Hasina’s ousting in 2024 and India’s refusal to return her to the nation.
The connection between the 2 nations has additional soured over the previous 12 months, particularly after the homicide of Osman Hadi, a 2024 protest chief who was vocally anti-Indian, which additionally led to protests in opposition to India in Bangladesh late final 12 months.
India has additionally alleged the ill-treatment of the Hindu minority beneath the interim authorities in Bangladesh.
Final December, a Hindu Bangladeshi man was lynched within the nation’s Bhaluka area after being accused of constructing derogatory remarks in opposition to the faith of Islam. The incident occurred amid widespread protests after Hadi’s loss of life.
Additionally final month, the Bangladesh Cricket Board (BCB) requested that each one of its workforce’s ICC Males’s Twenty20 World Cup matches scheduled in India be shifted to Sri Lanka.
However the Worldwide Cricket Council (ICC) responded to this demand final weekend by expelling Bangladesh from the match as an alternative. In a present of solidarity, the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) swiftly threw its weight behind Bangladesh and, on Sunday, Pakistan mentioned it might refuse to participate in its match in opposition to India, scheduled for February 15.
“India suffered a major strategic loss when Hasina was ousted, and it has been very uncomfortable with the interim authorities. New Delhi felt that it [Bangladesh] was closely influenced by Jamaat and different spiritual actors that, in India’s view, threaten its pursuits,” Michael Kugelman, senior fellow for South Asia on the Atlantic Council, instructed Al Jazeera.
Nevertheless, amid ongoing tensions, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Yunus held their first assembly on the sidelines of a BIMSTEC summit in Bangkok, Thailand, in April final 12 months. Vikram Misri, India’s international secretary, instructed reporters that Modi had “reiterated India’s help for a democratic, steady, peaceable, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh”.
Misri added that Yunus and Modi additionally mentioned Hasina’s extradition. However so far, Hasina stays in India.
How does India view the upcoming election?
Analysts say the stakes are excessive for India.
“India is hoping that this upcoming election will produce a authorities that’s prepared to interact with India and won’t be influenced by the varieties of actors that India feels threaten its pursuits,” Kugelman mentioned.
It’s unlikely that any new authorities will ignore worsening tensions with India, nevertheless, mentioned Rejwan of Impartial College, even when it consists of JIB or different Islamist events.
“Any authorities coming to energy in Dhaka will discover it troublesome to neglect its largest neighbour and a regional energy like India for the sake of mutual curiosity concerning nontraditional safety threats, commerce and meals safety, cultural and human ties,” he mentioned.
“It’s simple to provide inflammatory and widespread rhetoric in opposition to India if you find yourself competing for votes, however if you find yourself in authorities, the populist posture in the end modifications whereas coping with a robust and influential neighbour.”
Pushed by New Delhi’s “Neighbourhood First” coverage, which focuses on sustaining pleasant relations with neighbours to safeguard its safety, Indian policymakers have typically confused that the subcontinent wants to take care of a pleasant relationship with Bangladesh.
Talking at an occasion within the south Indian metropolis of Chennai final month, India’s International Minister S Jaishankar wished Bangladesh “nicely” for the upcoming elections. “We hope that when issues quiet down, the sense of neighbourliness on this area will develop,” he mentioned.
Jaishankar additionally visited Dhaka in early January for the funeral of former Bangladeshi Prime Minister and BNP chief Khaleda Zia. He later wrote on X that he had conveyed his condolences on behalf of India to Khaleda’s son, Tarique Rahman, and “expressed confidence that Begum Khaleda Zia’s imaginative and prescient and values will information the event of our [India and Bangladesh’s] partnership”.
Atlantic Council’s Kugelman mentioned India is more likely to be involved from political and safety standpoints if JIB wins the election, however could be “snug” with a BNP-led authorities.
“Right now’s BNP now not has an alliance with Jamaat, and the get together has expressed its pursuits about wanting to interact with India,” he famous.
“I believe that India might be prepared to select up the items of what has been a shattered relationship with Bangladesh … It clearly would have most popular the Awami League to be main the subsequent authorities. However India additionally recognises that the Awami League shouldn’t be going to be a political issue for fairly a while and isn’t going to attempt to push for tactics to deliver the Awami League again into the combination. It will settle for a authorities led by the BNP and could be prepared to work with it,” Kugelman added.
However with polls suggesting that the Jamaat and BNP are in a neck-to-neck race, India has been reaching out to each. In an interview this month, Jamaat chief Shafiqur Rahman revealed that an Indian diplomat had met him in December. And Indian excessive commissioner in Dhaka, Pranay Verma, met BNP chief Tarique Rahman on January 10.
How are Pakistan-Bangladesh relations?
Since Hasina’s ousting, Pakistan’s relationship with Bangladesh has grown hotter.
In 2024, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met Yunus twice, in search of to strengthen army and diplomatic ties. In September final 12 months, Pakistani International Minister Ishaq Dar visited Dhaka, in search of to “reinvigorate” a relationship that had been fractured since Bangladesh’s 1971 struggle of independence with Pakistan.
After India and Pakistan gained independence from British rule in 1947, Pakistan was created as a Muslim-majority state with two geographically separated areas, with Bangladesh being referred to as East Pakistan. In 1971, India supported Bangladesh’s liberation battle wherein the Pakistani army carried out atrocities, killing tons of of hundreds of individuals and allegedly raping an estimated 200,000 girls. Bangladesh continues to hunt an apology from Pakistan.
However in keeping with analysts, Yunus’s interim authorities has been in search of to spice up financial ties with Pakistan. Final February, the 2 nations resumed direct commerce for the primary time for the reason that 1971 struggle beneath a brand new settlement negotiated by Yunus. Final week, they resumed direct flights after 14 years. Flight companies had been stopped in 2012, with Dhaka citing safety considerations. The 2 nations have additionally held army and defence dialogues over the previous 12 months.
“Pakistan primarily needs to develop nearer bilateral ties by extending its defence and cultural diplomacy with Bangladesh,” Impartial College’s Rejwan mentioned. “It’s because, in actuality, given its personal financial challenges, it has little or no to supply to Bangladesh by way of commerce and funding. By doing so, it needs to intensify India’s safety considerations to its east by creating shut strategic ties with Dhaka.”
He added that whereas Pakistan has typically avoided commenting on the ousting of Hasina instantly, it does intention to reap the benefits of the continuing political change in Bangladesh.
“[Pakistan] has tried to sideline the darkish genocidal legacies of 1971 in the course of the liberation struggle of Bangladesh by utilising the rising anti-India and Islamist sentiment in Bangladesh,” he mentioned. “Furthermore, it has additionally been essentially the most energetic proponent of making a Bangladesh-China-Pakistan trilateral regional association, one thing about which Dhaka has expressed its reservations till now.”
How does Pakistan view the upcoming elections?
In accordance with Kugelman, Pakistan might be proud of both of the 2 important events coming to energy within the upcoming elections, however a JIB victory could be perfect.
“Pakistan would clearly be the one regional participant that will most favor a Jamaat authorities,” he mentioned.
“If we see a BNP-led authorities, I believe, Pakistan could be OK with that,” he mentioned.
However he warned that Islamabad could be keen to make sure that BNP doesn’t attempt to patch Bangladesh’s ties with India.
“That might diminish Islamabad’s latest efforts to work in direction of a greater relationship with Bangladesh.”
Nonetheless, Kugelman identified, “if Jamaat involves energy, there’s a excessive likelihood that regardless of having shut ties with Islamabad, they may additionally develop an understanding with New Delhi for their very own curiosity somewhat than being overtly confrontational,” he mentioned.
“BNP, in distinction, will maintain all of the channels of cooperation open with Pakistan however won’t … tilt closely on Islamabad. BNP’s coverage is loud and clear; it’s Bangladesh first, which implies nationwide curiosity comes first, which implies avoiding bandwagoning a international energy and, somewhat, strategically hedging with a various vary of exterior companions,” he added.
How are China-Bangladesh relations?
China’s affect in South Asia has been rising in recent times, and the nation has been making efforts to spice up military and economic ties with Bangladesh.
Whereas China backed Pakistan throughout Bangladesh’s 1971 liberation struggle, since 1975, the 2 nations have been diplomatic companions, and Beijing has maintained cordial relations with Dhaka regardless of the governing get together.
Below Hasina, the 2 signed a number of financial agreements. That pattern has continued beneath Yunus, whose administration has secured roughly $2.1bn in Chinese language investments, loans and grants and inspired extra funding from the world’s second-largest economic system in Bangladeshi infrastructure.
China has additionally pledged help for Bangladesh in managing the inflow of refugees to Cox’s Bazar, the place tons of of Rohingya have fled persecution in Myanmar, putting stress on Bangladesh’s infrastructure.
Final 12 months, Yunus mentioned he had mentioned the doable buy of fighter jets throughout his go to to China, although a deal has but to be signed.
“China has been pragmatic and lifelike about Hasina’s ouster,” Rejwan mentioned. “Beijing warmly welcomed the formation of the interim authorities and was one of many first exterior companions to increase every kind of help beneath the brand new political realities in Bangladesh.”
“Resulting from this Chinese language appeal offensive, the interim authorities in Dhaka additional bolstered the prevailing bilateral cooperation with Beijing,” he added. “Certainly, it may be mentioned that the Sino-Bangladesh relations have been sturdy throughout Hasina’s regime and even stronger beneath the present interim administration, and are perceived to stay as so regardless of whoever involves energy in Dhaka after the election,” he added.
How does China view the upcoming election?
China seems to be taking an energetic curiosity. Over the previous 12 months, Chinese language leaders have been assembly leaders from Bangladesh’s political events forward of the elections.
In April final 12 months, a senior Chinese language Communist Celebration delegation met a delegation from the Jamaat. In June, Chinese language Vice Minister of International Affairs Solar Weidong met BNP secretary-general Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir. In each these conferences, the upcoming elections have been mentioned.
Kugelman mentioned China will watch the elections intently because it views Bangladesh as a key commerce and funding accomplice.
“For Beijing, political stability in Dhaka is essential as a result of its investments within the area. Beijing needs to make sure that the law-and-order challenges and different safety considerations in Bangladesh wouldn’t affect Chinese language pursuits on the bottom,” he mentioned.
Rejwan mentioned, for China, the upcoming elections are additionally necessary since Bangladesh, for its strategic affect over South Asia, a area which has lengthy been thought of India’s sphere of affect.
“In contrast to India, China has avoided interfering within the home politics of Bangladesh and has traditionally maintained shut ties with political events like BNP and JIB even in the course of the peak of Hasina’s rule,” he mentioned.
However with regards to the election consequence, Rejwan mentioned, China has no specific favourites.
“Whoever wins the bulk, it can give its full help to that regime and, aspect by aspect, will keep interplay with different main political events. Beijing prefers inclusive somewhat than unique interactions with all of the political gamers in Bangladesh,” he mentioned.
“China’s main problem might be to stop any US affect over the get together that secures the bulk within the polls and varieties the federal government,” Rejwan added.
