As protesters in Los Angeles denounced United States President Donald Trump’s deportation insurance policies, generally resulting in clashes with legislation enforcement, Republican and Democratic politicians sparred over who has the larger crime downside: blue states or crimson states.
California Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, took to X to problem three elected Republican officers who had supplied posts crucial of California and Newsom’s dealing with of the current protests.
🚨JUST IN: Senator Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) requires Governor Gavin Newsom to be arrested.
“Lock him up.”
“LA seems to be like a 3rd world nation — anarchists are in cost, legislation enforcement is being attacked, and the rule of legislation is nonexistent.” pic.twitter.com/v718Yau6wh
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) June 9, 2025
- On June 9, Senator Tommy Tuberville of Alabama stated Los Angeles “seems to be like a 3rd world nation – anarchists are in cost, legislation enforcement is being attacked, and the rule of legislation is nonexistent”. Later that day, Newsom posted: “Alabama has 3X the murder charge of California. Its homicide charge is ranked third in the complete nation.”
- On June 10, Senator Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma posted: “America is sick of unlawful immigration and weak, lawless liberal management.” He referred to as it “wealthy” that Newsom was suing Trump to reverse the president’s federalisation of California’s Nationwide Guard. Later that day, Newsom posted: “If you wish to talk about violence, let’s begin along with your state’s homicide charge – which is 40 p.c greater than California’s.”
- Additionally on June 10, Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders posted: “What’s occurring in California would by no means occur right here in Arkansas as a result of we worth order over chaos.” The subsequent day, Newsom responded, “Your murder charge is actually DOUBLE California’s.”
Newsom’s comparisons are near correct as a result of he worded his assertions rigorously to seek advice from the murder charge. California has extra homicides than any state, nevertheless it additionally has by far the biggest inhabitants, and utilizing the speed – which refers to homicides per 100,000 folks – makes it doable to check states on an excellent footing.
Cease reporting crime then your crime charge will probably be decrease. So handy for you. Sadly for you, we all know the reality. https://t.co/AoCNo0FG5f
— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) June 11, 2025
Some Newsom critics replied to his publish by arguing that the numbers the governor used are unreliable as a result of California has a number of the lowest charges of reporting crimes to the FBI’s knowledge collectors.
However this argument is a crimson herring: Newsom’s political workplace confirmed to PolitiFact that his knowledge are from the US Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention (CDC). Which means his statistics usually are not topic to issues about low reporting charges (an issue that commentators have exaggerated).
California fares much less nicely towards these three states when measuring total violent crime, which incorporates homicides, rapes, aggravated assaults and robberies.
What does the CDC knowledge present?
The Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention publishes knowledge displaying the variety of homicides per state in addition to the speed of homicides per 100,000 folks. The latter metric permits a comparability of larger states to smaller states.
In line with 2022 knowledge, the most recent obtainable, Alabama ranks third within the nation for its murder charge with 14.9 per 100,000 folks. (It trails Mississippi and Louisiana and likewise the District of Columbia, which usually isn’t thought of similar to the 50 states as a result of it’s basically a metropolis quite than a state.)
Arkansas ranks sixth with a charge of 11.8 homicides per 100,000 folks. Oklahoma ranks twentieth with a charge of 8.3 per 100,000.
And California? It ranks thirtieth with a charge of 5.9 per 100,000.
Alabama’s charge is about 2.5 instances greater than California’s charge; Newsom stated it was triple. Oklahoma’s charge is 41 p.c greater than California’s; Newsom stated it was 40 p.c greater. And Arkansas’s charge is double California’s, which is what Newsom stated.
California’s murder charge is decrease than Alabama’s, Arkansas’s and Oklahoma’s
“The CDC knowledge are very dependable in terms of dying and mortality knowledge as a result of these come immediately from coroners’ information and state well being departments,” stated Alex R Piquero, a College of Miami criminologist and former director of the federal Bureau of Justice Statistics. “They’re among the many most revered of all well being knowledge collections.”
Though the CDC’s knowledge are from 2022, the 2023 FBI knowledge present the identical common rating sample. The FBI collects knowledge from legislation enforcement companies quite than coroners’ workplaces.
In its statistics, Alabama ranked third among the many 50 states with 10.3 homicides per 100,000 folks. Arkansas ranked fifth with 9.4 per 100,000, and Oklahoma ranked sixteenth with 6.1 per 100,000. California ranked twenty fifth with 5 per 100,000.
“There’s numerous analysis on the variation of homicides throughout states in the USA, and each the CDC and FBI present” that Newsom is mostly correct, Piquero stated.
One technical observe: In his posts, Newsom flipped forwards and backwards between referring to the “murder” charge and the “homicide” charge. For the CDC knowledge, he ought to have completely used the time period “murder” as a result of the CDC doesn’t use the time period “homicide”.
What about violent crime total?
The information on violent crime are much less beneficial for California.
The information the FBI collected for 2023 present that Arkansas’s violent crime charge ranked fourth among the many states, about 620 incidents per 100,000 folks. California ranked sixth with 508 per 100,000 folks. That was greater than both Oklahoma (fifteenth with 414 per 100,000) and Alabama (nineteenth with 404 per 100,000).
Our ruling
Newsom stated California has decrease murder charges than Alabama, Arkansas and Oklahoma.
Knowledge for 2022 from the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention, which criminologists think about a dependable supply, present that California has a decrease murder charge than Alabama, Arkansas and Oklahoma and roughly within the proportions that Newsom stated.
Knowledge from 2023 collected by the FBI usually mirror the CDC knowledge.
Taking a look at violent crime extra broadly – a class that features rape, aggravated assault and theft along with murder – California fares much less nicely, notching charges greater than both Oklahoma and Alabama.
The assertion is correct however wants extra data, so we charge the assertion Largely True.
