The primary spherical of Iran-US talks in Muscat produced no breakthrough. The subsequent few weeks will decide whether or not they laid foundations or merely purchased time earlier than escalation.
When Iranian and American negotiators concluded a number of hours of talks in Muscat on February 6, publicly, neither aspect signalled any shift from its opening place. Iran insisted the discussions focus completely on the nuclear file. The US arrived looking for a complete framework that will additionally cowl ballistic missiles, regional armed teams, and extra broadly, points Washington has raised publicly, together with human rights considerations. Neither prevailed. Each agreed to satisfy once more.
On the floor, this seems like a non-event. It was not.
The Muscat spherical was the primary high-level diplomatic engagement between the 2 nations for the reason that joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear services in June 2025, an escalation that Iran later mentioned killed greater than 1,000 individuals and concerned strikes on three nuclear websites. That the 2 sides returned to the identical palace close to Muscat’s airport the place earlier rounds had been held in 2025, and agreed to return once more is critical.
However continuation will not be progress. The space between what occurred in Muscat and what a deal requires stays huge.
Diplomacy performed below navy escort
Essentially the most putting function of the Muscat spherical was not what was mentioned, however who sat within the room. The American delegation was led by Particular Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law. It additionally included, for the primary time, Admiral Brad Cooper, the commander of US Central Command, in full costume uniform.
His presence on the negotiating desk was not incidental. It was a sign. The USS Abraham Lincoln service strike group was working within the Arabian Sea because the talks unfolded, and days earlier, US forces had shot down an Iranian drone that approached the service.
An Iranian diplomatic supply informed the Reuters information company that Cooper’s presence “endangered” the talks. One other, quoted by Al-Araby TV, warned that “negotiations going down below risk” might impose strategic prices relatively than advance them. For Tehran, the message was unmistakable: This was diplomacy performed within the shadow of drive, not as a substitute for it.
Washington, for its half, sees this as leverage. President Trump, talking on board Air Power One after the talks, described them as “superb” and mentioned Iran needs a deal “very badly”, including: “They know the results in the event that they don’t. They don’t make a deal; the results are very steep.”
That is diplomacy framed as an ultimatum. It might create urgency. It’s unlikely to create belief, and belief is what this course of most desperately wants.
The structural downside
The US withdrew from the 2015 Joint Complete Plan of Motion (JCPOA) in 2018, regardless of worldwide verification that Iran was assembly its obligations. That call shattered Iranian confidence within the sturdiness of US commitments. Tehran’s subsequent incremental breaches of the settlement, steadily rising enrichment ranges from 2019 onwards, weakened its credibility, in flip.
This mutual mistrust will not be a negotiating impediment that may be resolved with artistic diplomacy alone. It’s the defining situation below which any settlement have to be constructed. The US has the capability to impose monumental financial and navy prices on Iran. However energy doesn’t robotically produce compliance. For commitments to carry, Iran should consider concessions will convey reduction relatively than new calls for. That perception has been badly broken.
Contemplate the sequence of occasions surrounding the Muscat spherical itself. Hours after the talks concluded, the US State Division introduced new sanctions concentrating on 14 shadow fleet vessels concerned in transporting Iranian petroleum, alongside penalties on 15 entities and two people. The Treasury Division framed the motion as a part of the administration’s “most stress” marketing campaign. Whether or not preplanned or timed for impact, the message was clear: Washington intends to barter and squeeze concurrently.
For Tehran, which has constantly demanded that sanctions reduction be the place to begin for progress, this sequencing confirms exactly the sample it fears. Iranian International Minister Abbas Araghchi recognized this dynamic explicitly, telling Iranian state tv that “the distrust that has developed is a critical problem dealing with the negotiations.”
What really occurred in Muscat
Beneath the competing narratives, the outlines of the substantive dialogue have begun to emerge. Iran reportedly rejected a US demand for “zero enrichment”, a maximalist place it was by no means going to just accept in a primary assembly. The 2 sides as a substitute mentioned the dilution of Iran’s present uranium stockpile, a extra technical and probably extra productive avenue.
In the meantime, Al Jazeera reported that diplomats from Egypt, Turkiye and Qatar had individually provided Iran a framework proposal: Halt enrichment for 3 years, switch extremely enriched uranium overseas, and pledge to not provoke the usage of ballistic missiles. Russia had reportedly signalled willingness to obtain the uranium. Tehran has signalled each the enrichment halt and uranium switch could be nonstarters.
Maybe crucial growth was the least seen. In line with Axios, Witkoff and Kushner met straight with Araghchi in the course of the talks, breaking from the strictly oblique format that Iran had demanded for many of final 12 months’s rounds of negotiations. Iran had beforehand insisted on speaking with the US solely by way of Omani intermediaries. Crossing that barrier, even partially, suggests either side recognise the bounds of oblique talks as soon as bargaining turns into technical.
Oman’s framing was arguably probably the most sincere evaluation of the day. International Minister Badr al-Busaidi described the talks as geared toward establishing “applicable situations for the resumption of diplomatic and technical negotiations”.
What the following few weeks will determine
Trump mentioned a second spherical of talks would happen quickly. Either side indicated to Axios that additional conferences had been anticipated inside days. The compressed timeline is notable. Throughout final 12 months’s rounds, weeks separated every session. The tempo suggests Washington believes the diplomatic window is narrowing, and Tehran is at the least prepared to check that declare.
A number of assessments will present whether or not urgency produces substance or merely velocity.
First, the scope query. The elemental dispute over what the talks are about stays unresolved. Iran gained the primary procedural battle: The venue moved from Turkiye to Oman, regional observers had been excluded, and Araghchi claims solely nuclear points had been mentioned. Secretary of State Marco Rubio mentioned earlier than the talks that the agenda wanted to incorporate “all these points”. If the second spherical begins with the identical battle over scope, it would sign that even the fundamentals stay unsettled.
Second, Iran’s enrichment posture. Earlier than the June 2025 battle, Iran had been enriching uranium to 60 p.c purity, a brief technical step from weapons-grade. Tehran has mentioned enrichment stopped following the strikes. However Iran has additionally conditioned Worldwide Atomic Vitality Company inspections of the bombed websites on new inspection preparations, elevating considerations amongst non-proliferation specialists. Conversely, experiences of enrichment resumption or acceleration would probably finish the diplomatic monitor.
Third, the navy setting. The US naval build-up within the Arabian Sea will not be ornamental. The drone shootdown close to the Abraham Lincoln and Iran’s tried interception of a US-flagged vessel within the Strait of Hormuz within the days earlier than the talks present how rapidly signalling can slide into miscalculation. Whether or not the service group is bolstered, maintained or progressively drawn down within the coming weeks will reveal extra about Washington’s evaluation of diplomacy than any press assertion.
Fourth, the sanctions rhythm. The identical-day announcement of shadow fleet sanctions establishes a sample. If Washington continues to layer new financial penalties between rounds of talks, Tehran will deal with it as proof that diplomacy is efficiency relatively than course of.
Fifth, backchannel exercise. Essentially the most consequential diplomacy over the following few weeks might not happen in formal settings. Oman, Qatar, Egypt and Turkiye have been working behind the scenes to maintain dialogue. If these middleman contacts stay lively, house for de-escalation persists. In the event that they fall silent, the margin for error narrows.
A managed impasse will not be a method
Essentially the most possible short-term consequence stays neither breakthrough nor battle, however a managed impasse through which either side keep maximal public positions whereas avoiding steps that will make future talks not possible. In apply, it is a pause sustained by warning relatively than a settlement anchored in confidence.
For the broader area, the excellence issues urgently. Gulf states have little interest in changing into staging grounds for escalation. Public statements throughout the area have constantly emphasised de-escalation, restraint and battle avoidance. However regional actors can facilitate, host and encourage; they can not impose phrases on both Washington or Tehran.
The Muscat talks didn’t fail. Neither did they succeed. They established {that a} channel exists, that either side are prepared to make use of it, and that direct contact between senior officers is feasible.
However a channel will not be a plan. The absence of battle will not be the presence of a deal. The interval between Muscat and no matter comes subsequent is a window through which miscalculation stays near the floor, sustained solely by the idea that either side are studying one another’s alerts accurately.
The subsequent spherical of talks is not going to produce an settlement. However it could present whether or not the 2 sides are constructing a ground beneath the standoff or just suspending the second when that ground offers method.
The views expressed on this article are the writer’s personal and don’t essentially replicate Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
