Islamabad, Pakistan – After three days, talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan in Istanbul, geared toward ending a tense and violent standoff between the South Asian neighbours, appeared to have hit a wall in Istanbul on Tuesday.
Mediated by Qatar and Türkiye, the negotiations adopted an initial round of dialogue in Doha, which produced a temporary ceasefire on October 19 after every week of combating that left dozens useless on either side.
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However regardless that officers and consultants mentioned that “last-ditch” efforts have been anticipated to proceed to attempt to pull the 2 international locations again from a full-fledged battle, the prospects of latest hostilities between them loom giant after their incapability, to date, to construct on the Doha truce, analysts say.
Pakistani safety officers mentioned that on Monday, talks went on for practically 18 hours. However they accused the Afghan delegation of adjusting its place on Islamabad’s central demand – that Kabul crack down on the Pakistan Taliban armed group, identified by the acronym TTP. One official, chatting with Al Jazeera on situation of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the dialogue, alleged that the “directions obtained from Kabul” for the Afghan group have been complicating negotiations.
Kabul, nonetheless, blamed the Pakistani delegation for a “lack of coordination,” claiming the Pakistani aspect was “not presenting clear arguments” and stored “leaving the negotiating desk”, Afghan media reported.
The Afghan group is being led by the deputy minister for administrative affairs on the Ministry of Inside, Haji Najib, whereas Pakistan has not publicly disclosed its representatives.
Latest cross-border attacks between the militaries of the 2 international locations have killed multiple people, troops and civilians, and injured many more in each Pakistan and Afghanistan.
United States President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly sought credit score for resolving international conflicts, additionally waded in, saying he would “resolve the Afghanistan-Pakistan disaster in a short time”, whereas chatting with reporters on the sidelines of the Affiliation of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) summit in Malaysia earlier within the week.
But, any long-term settlement seems troublesome because of the two nations’ “profound mutual mistrust and conflicting priorities”, mentioned Baqir Sajjad Syed, a former Pakistan fellow on the Wilson Middle and a journalist who covers nationwide safety.
Syed added that their historical grievances and Pakistan’s previous interventions in Afghanistan make concessions politically dangerous for the Afghan Taliban.
“In my opinion, the core problem is ideological alignment. The Afghan Taliban’s dependence on TTP for coping with inner safety issues [inside Afghanistan] makes it troublesome for them to dissociate from the group, regardless of Pakistani considerations,” he advised Al Jazeera.
A fraught friendship
Traditionally, Pakistan was lengthy perceived as the first patron of the Afghan Taliban. Many in Pakistan publicly welcomed the Taliban’s return to energy in August 2021 after the withdrawal of US forces.
However relations have sharply deteriorated since, largely over the TTP, an armed group that emerged in 2007 throughout the US-led so-called “battle on terror”, and which has waged an extended marketing campaign in opposition to Islamabad.
The TTP seeks the discharge of its members imprisoned in Pakistan and opposes the merger of Pakistan’s former tribal areas into its Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Though impartial from the Afghan Taliban, the 2 teams are ideologically aligned.
Islamabad accuses Kabul of offering sanctuary not solely to the TTP however to different teams, together with the Balochistan Liberation Military and the ISIL (ISIS) affiliate in Khorasan Province (ISKP), expenses Kabul denies.
The Afghan Taliban have insisted that the TTP is a Pakistani drawback, repeatedly arguing that insecurity in Pakistan is a home matter. And the Taliban have themselves lengthy seen the ISKP as enemies.
Mullah Yaqoob, Afghanistan’s defence minister who signed the ceasefire in Doha along with his Pakistani counterpart, Khawaja Asif, final week, mentioned in an interview on October 19 that states generally used the label “terrorism” for political ends.
“There isn’t a common or clear definition of terrorism,” he mentioned, including that any authorities can model its adversaries as “terrorists” for its personal agenda.
In the meantime, regional powers together with Iran, Russia, China, and several other Central Asian states have additionally urged the Taliban to remove the TTP and different armed teams allegedly working from Afghanistan.
That enchantment was renewed in Moscow in early October, in consultations additionally attended by Afghan Minister of Overseas Affairs Amir Khan Muttaqi.
Rising toll, rising tensions
In latest days, a number of assaults have killed greater than two dozen Pakistani troopers, together with officers.
The 12 months 2024 was amongst Pakistan’s deadliest in practically a decade, with greater than 2,500 casualties recorded, and 2025 is on monitor to surpass that, analysts say.
Each civilians and safety personnel have been focused, with most assaults concentrated in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. TTP operations have elevated sharply in each frequency and depth.
“Our information present that the TTP engaged in no less than 600 assaults in opposition to, or clashes with, safety forces prior to now 12 months alone. Its exercise in 2025 to date already exceeds that seen in all of 2024,” a latest Armed Battle Location & Occasion Knowledge (ACLED) report mentioned.
Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud, an Islamabad-based safety analyst, says that Pakistani negotiators should recognise that ties between the Taliban and the TTP are rooted in ideology, making it onerous for Afghanistan’s authorities to surrender on the anti-Pakistan armed group.
Journalist Sami Yousafzai, a longtime observer of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, agreed, saying that the prospects of a détente now look more and more distant.
Each Mehsud and Yousafzai pointed to the Taliban’s historical past of sticking by allies even within the face of worldwide stress, and even army assault.
“We’ve got seen this identical perspective from the Afghan Taliban in 2001, when, after the 9/11 assaults, they continued to stay steadfastly with Al al-Qaeda,” Mehsud mentioned.
In response to Yousafzai, “the Afghan Taliban are battle veterans, they usually can face up to army stress”.
Failed diplomacy?
In latest months, either side have pursued diplomacy, nudged additionally by China, which has mediated talks between them, along with Qatar and Turkiye.
But, analysts say Islamabad would possibly quickly conclude that it has few nonmilitary choices to handle its considerations.
Syed pointed to Pakistani Defence Minister Asif’s latest menace of an “open war” and mentioned that these feedback might presage focused air strikes or cross-border operations in opposition to alleged TTP sanctuaries in Afghanistan.
“That mentioned, mediators, significantly Qatar and Turkiye, are anticipated to make a last-ditch push to revive dialogue or shift it to a different venue. There may be additionally a small chance of different international locations becoming a member of in, particularly after President Trump’s newest sign of readiness to step in and de-escalate the disaster,” he mentioned.
Syed mentioned that financial incentives, together with assist, in alternate for compliance with ceasefire provisions may very well be one technique to get the neighbours to keep away from a full-fledged army battle.
This can be a device Trump has utilized in latest months in different wars, together with in getting Thailand and Cambodia to cease combating after border clashes. The US president oversaw the signing of a peace deal between the Southeast Asian nations in Kuala Lumpur final weekend.
Unintended penalties
Whereas Pakistan has far superior army capabilities, the Taliban has benefits, too, say analysts, cautioning in opposition to overconfidence on the a part of Islamabad.
Yousafzai argued that the disaster with Pakistan had helped bolster home help for the Taliban, and army motion in opposition to it might additional elevate sympathy for the group.
“The response by the Afghan Taliban of attacking the Pakistani army on [the] border was seen as a forceful response, growing their reputation. And even when Pakistan continues to bomb, it might find yourself killing harmless civilians, resulting in extra resentment and anti-Pakistani sentiment in [the] public and amongst [the] Afghan Taliban,” he mentioned.
This dynamic, in keeping with Yousafzai, needs to be worrying for Islamabad, significantly if the Taliban’s supreme chief, Haibatullah Akhunzada, steps in.
“If Akhunzada points an edict, declaring Jihad in opposition to Pakistan, many younger Afghans might doubtlessly be a part of the ranks of [the] Taliban,” Yousafzai warned. “Even when it’ll imply a much bigger loss for Afghans, the state of affairs won’t be good for Pakistan.”
The one beneficiary, he mentioned, can be the TTP, which can really feel much more emboldened “to launch assaults in opposition to the Pakistani army”.
