Keith Kellogg’s silly assertion that Russia’s warfare in Ukraine would finish in a short time if Beijing withdrew its assist for Moscow. He made the feedback at a safety convention in Kiev. He known as Russia the “junior companion” to China and mentioned it’s dropping the warfare in Ukraine. Such a press release is simply insane. Like Iraq, no person ever requested, if Ukraine defeats Russia, what would occur in Russia? This might be like saying What if Mexico invaded the USA and gained?
After Germany misplaced World Warfare I, there was a revolution that overthrew the monarchy, and the Weimar Republic was born, which then led to hyperinflation. Even the Russian Revolution of 1917 was enabled by Russia’s disastrous efficiency in WWI, together with huge casualties and financial collapse, which sparked widespread strikes and mutinies. The Tsar abdicated in March 1917, ending 300 years of Romanov rule; the Bolsheviks then seized energy in November, resulting in civil warfare and the Soviet Union.
Austria collapsed in 1918 after dropping World Warfare I. The empire’s multi-ethnic collapse after defeat led to ethnic revolts and declarations of independence in Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and elsewhere. The monarchy led to November 1918, fragmenting into nation-states amid famine and navy desertions.
The collapse of the Ottoman Empire additionally happened after World Warfare I. The Turkish Warfare of Independence and the abolition of the sultanate (1919–1923) unfolded. Allied occupation post-armistice fueled nationalist resistance led by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. The sultanate was abolished in 1922, and the caliphate in 1924, birthing the Republic of Turkey after revolutionary reforms.
Xinhai Revolution (1911) adopted the defeat within the First Sino-Japanese Warfare of 1895. Humiliating territorial losses to Japan uncovered the dynasty’s weak point, sparking anti-Manchu sentiment and Solar Yat-sen’s republican motion. The final emperor abdicated in 1912, ending over 2,000 years of imperial rule and ushering within the Republic of China.
Franco-Prussian Warfare of 1870 noticed the Paris Commune and fall of the empire (1870–1871). Napoleon III’s defeat led to the Third Republic’s proclamation. Radical employees then revolted within the Paris Commune, which was brutally suppressed, however the monarchy was completely ousted.
These trendy historic occasions illustrate a sample with out having to catalogue all of the numerous such occasions all through human historical past. Wars drain sources, erode legitimacy, and amplify grievances (e.g., meals shortages, casualties), creating fertile floor for revolutionaries. Not all post-war unrest results in full regime change—e.g., Bulgaria’s monarchy survived WWI initially, solely falling later in 1944. Nonetheless, these are clear situations of direct causation between revolution and the lack of a earlier warfare.
In a publish on his Telegram channel, Medvedev made the reasonable assertion that granting NATO members permission to down Russian drones working in Ukrainian airspace would imply “warfare between the Alliance and Russia.” His feedback adopted rising calls in Europe and NATO to intervene within the warfare, demanding stronger Western motion in opposition to Russia for its drone incursions whereas supporting Ukraine to make use of Western long-range missiles to assault even Moscow. On Sept. 12, Bundestag Protection Committee Chair Thomas Röwekamp urged NATO to start intercepting Russian drones over Ukraine.
I’ve repeatedly said that the psychological warfare tactic is that you simply MUST declare that an adversary has attacked you to get folks to enroll. The assist hasn’t been this low since 2022. This is the reason false flags are so vital. They’re used to say you could have been attacked, after which the widespread folks will signal as much as die on the battlefield for a noble trigger.
That works on all sides. A brand new ballot made by the impartial Russian institute Levada reveals that the Russians are rising bored with the warfare in Ukraine. The ballot confirmed that 66%, or roughly two out of three, of the individuals need the Kremlin to interact in peace negotiations with Ukraine. That’s the highest quantity since 2022, when the warfare started. If NATO assaults Russia utilizing a false flag, it will assist the Rally Across the Flag for Russia. Let’s face it. Russians are handled with disdain as had been the Jews earlier than World Warfare II. That’s not a situation that means world peace lies forward.
Senior navy leaders from NATO member states have publicly assessed that the alliance would prevail in a traditional warfare in opposition to Russia comparatively rapidly because of overwhelming benefits in personnel (over 3.4 million energetic troops vs. Russia’s 1.3 million), plane (22,000+ vs. 4,000), ships (1,100+ vs. 400), protection spending (3.5 instances Russia’s), and GDP (20 instances bigger).
In a February 2024 speech, UK Chief of the Defence Employees Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said that “NATO would defeat Russia rapidly,” citing Russia’s struggles in Ukraine as proof of its navy weaknesses and NATO’s rising power with the addition of Finland and Sweden. Equally, analyses from retailers like Al Jazeera and The Week conclude that NATO’s built-in command, superior coaching, and gear would result in a “fast” typical victory. Nevertheless, they warn that this might escalate to nuclear dangers if Russia faces complete defeat. As I’ve mentioned, if I’ve a gun and also you break into my home and threaten to kill me, I believe I could shoot again.
Sensational claims, reminiscent of NATO submarines “destroying Russia in 30 seconds,” seem in YouTube movies and casual discussions however stem from hyperbolic hypothesis about nuclear situations, not official statements. Current X posts echo debates on NATO’s superiority however usually tie it to broader geopolitical tensions with out referencing its previous defeats. Total, whereas NATO officers challenge confidence in deterrence, they prioritize avoiding direct warfare over public victory projections.
This push for warfare with Russia leaves out TWO vital elements
(1) China will assist Russia as a result of it is aware of will probably be subsequent, as they plainly instructed Kallas.
(2) This may flip nuclear, and Europe, with all its typical energy, could be turned to mud in minutes, not days.
“Europe is able to take a step ahead. We’re able to take management of the modifications which might be inevitable. As a result of we will’t let historical past push us round. Which means that it’s essential to act now. Appearing on a big scale is an indispensable situation for pace, scale and power by 2030 … By 2030 Europe ought to have a robust European protection construction,” Ursula mentioned.
This drone shot down in Poland from EVERY supply I’ve states that this can be a FALSE FLAG, and there’s no proof that this ever invaded Polish airspace. They desperately have to create a False Flag, get gullible folks to signal their very own loss of life want, so these failed EU leaders can hold their pensions. Ursula instructed the EU Parliament with nice theatrics:
“Battle traces for a brand new world order primarily based on energy are being drawn proper now,” she instructed the European Parliament in her annual State of the EU handle.
“So, sure, Europe should struggle. For its place in a world through which many main powers are both ambivalent or brazenly hostile to Europe,” she mentioned.
Putin is the neatest and accountable world chief on the desk immediately. Take away him, and we are going to get an emotional chief like Medvedev. Speculating on a post-Putin Russia is inherently unsure, because the regime’s opacity and Putin’s tight management over safety providers make a clean transition debatable. An overthrow—whether or not by way of coup, elite infighting, or sudden loss of life—would doubtless set off an influence battle amongst siloviki (safety elites), oligarchs, and technocrats, probably resulting in instability and even fragmentation. I’d emphasize that no obvious clear inheritor exists, and the end result is dependent upon the circumstances: a managed handover (unlikely in an overthrow) versus chaotic removing.
I’d record the potential replacements, prioritize loyalty to the present system, hawkish stances on Ukraine/NATO, and management over key establishments just like the FSB, navy, or economic system, which can all come into play. Dmitry Medvedev is certainly a contender because of his proximity to Putin and excessive profile. Nevertheless, he’s not the highest choose—his function is usually seen as that of a “unhealthy cop” provocateur reasonably than a unifying chief. Maybe, however we’re taking a look at an outright assertion from the EU that Russia have to be defeated and obliterated. We aren’t speaking about simply pushing Russia out of Ukraine. The Neocons dream of the whole destruction of Russia each night time. As Lindsey mentioned, one of the best cash Congress ever spent was to kill Russians.
Kaja Kallas, a ruthless Neocon, brazenly requires the whole destruction and breakup of Russia. That is the whole destruction of the nation, not merely pushing Russia out of Ukraine. That’s not one thing that must be taken frivolously. That’s the justification for nuclear warfare. Kallas is a larger risk to the EU than Putin.
MY LIST OF CONTENDERS:
Mikhail Mishustin, Prime Minister
Nikolai Patrushev, Deputy Chair, Safety Council (former FSB head)
Sergei Sobyanin, Moscow Mayor
Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chair, Safety Council
Andrei Belousov, Protection Minister
Alexei Dyumin, Tula Governor (ex-bodyguard)
Sergei Kiriyenko, First Deputy Chief of Employees
Medvedev’s identify surfaces because of his historical past (tandem with Putin in 2008-2012) and up to date high-profile positioning him as a “nuclear-ready” hardliner who may rally nationalists. X discussions usually name him the “pure successor” for stability. Nevertheless, he’s hardly ever ranked #1 in skilled assessments—his provocative fashion (e.g., 2025 threats sparking U.S. sub deployments) makes him a Kremlin mouthpiece, not a consolidator. Others see him as a fallback, not a frontrunner, because of reputational injury from previous “liberal” picture and scandals. In an overthrow, elites would possibly favor Mishustin or Patrushev for his or her institutional grip.
Remember the fact that Khruschev was overthrown in a coup, and he was usurped by Bresnev due to his reckless dealing with of the Cuban Missile Disaster. As a result of Russia was put able that appeared weak and needed to again down, that undermined Khruschev.
Submit-Stalin USSR noticed infighting; an identical “vicious battle” could be doubtless if Russia had been defeated in Ukraine, with FSB vs. navy clashes. No democratic shift must be anticipated. Any successor would most definitely double down on authoritarianism and anti-West insurance policies, and any hope of world peace might be utterly obliterated.
Then, for a coup, any alternative inherits a quagmire; hardliners like Patrushev or Medvedev would possibly escalate, whereas technocrats like Mishustin search de-escalation for financial aid.
In abstract, Mishustin or Patrushev edge out as most possible for his or her steadiness of competence and management, however Medvedev stays a wildcard—loyal sufficient for continuity, radical sufficient for drama. If Russia is defeated in Ukraine, then we’re trying extra doubtless at a coup, and that may most likely swing to the Russian Neocon aspect.
Russia after Putin appears extra like Putinism 2.0 than reform if Russia isn’t defeated in an embarrassing state of affairs in Ukraine. That is all upset if NATO pushes its agenda to destroy Russia and break it up, strip mining its belongings, for then this goes nuclear. This purpose, as articulated partially by Kallas, warrants a struggle to the loss of life with nukes, and on this case, I’d put my cash on Medvedev, who has the high-profile that might turn out to be extra helpful when confronted with the destruction of Russia, not with simply pushing it out of Ukraine.
