A evaluate by the SUN DAY Marketing campaign of data belatedly released by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) reveals that the mix of photo voltaic and wind accounted for nearly 96% of latest U.S. electrical producing capability added within the first third of 2025. In April, photo voltaic offered 87% of latest capability, making it the 20th consecutive month through which photo voltaic has taken the lead.
Photo voltaic was 87% of latest producing capability in April and 78% year-to-date:
In its newest month-to-month “Power Infrastructure Replace” report (with knowledge by April 30, 2025), FERC says 50 “models” of photo voltaic totaling 2,284 MW had been positioned into service in April, accounting for 86.7% of all new producing capability added throughout the month.
As well as, the 9,451 MW of photo voltaic added throughout the first 4 months of 2025 was greater than three-quarters (77.7%) of the brand new technology positioned into service.
Photo voltaic has now been the biggest supply of latest producing capability added every month for twenty consecutive months: September 2023 to April 2025.
Photo voltaic + wind had been virtually 96% of latest capability added within the first third of 2025:
Between January and April, new wind has offered 2,183 MW of capability additions, thereby accounting for 18% of latest additions throughout the first 4 months of 2025.
For the primary third of the yr, the mix of photo voltaic and wind was 95.7% of latest capability whereas pure fuel (511 MW) offered simply 4.2%; the remaining 0.1% got here from oil (11 MW).
Photo voltaic plus wind are virtually 1 / 4 of U.S. utility-scale producing capability; all renewables mixed are almost a 3rd:
The put in capacities of photo voltaic (11.0%) and wind (11.8%) are actually every greater than a tenth of the nation’s complete. Taken collectively, they represent virtually one-fourth (22.8%) of the U.S.’s complete out there put in utility-scale producing capability.
Furthermore, a minimum of 25 to 30% of U.S. solar capacity is within the type of small-scale (e.g., rooftop) methods that aren’t mirrored in FERC’s knowledge. Together with that further photo voltaic capability would deliver the share offered by photo voltaic + wind to greater than 1 / 4 of the nation’s complete.
With the inclusion of hydropower (7.7%), biomass (1.1%) and geothermal (0.3%), renewables at the moment declare a 31.8% share of complete U.S. utility-scale producing capability. If small-scale photo voltaic capability is included, renewables are actually about one-third of complete U.S. producing capability.
Photo voltaic stays on monitor to turn into the second largest supply of U.S. producing capability:
FERC studies that web “excessive chance” additions of photo voltaic between Could 2025 and April 2028 complete 90,158 MW — an quantity virtually 4 occasions the forecast web “excessive chance” additions for wind (22,793 MW), the second quickest rising useful resource. Notably, each three-year projections are larger than offered only a month earlier.
FERC additionally foresees web development for hydropower (596 MW) and geothermal (92 MW) however a lower of 123 MW in biomass capability.
Taken collectively, the online new “excessive chance” capability additions by all renewable vitality sources over the subsequent three years — i.e., the majority of the Trump Administration’s remaining time in workplace — would complete 113,516 MW.
However, there is no such thing as a new nuclear capability in FERC’s three-year forecast whereas coal and oil are projected to contract by 24,373 MW and 1,915 MW respectively. Pure fuel capability would broaden by 5,730 MW.
Thus, adjusting for the completely different capability elements of fuel (59.7%), wind (34.3%) and utility-scale photo voltaic (23.4%), electrical energy generated by the projected new photo voltaic capability to be added within the coming three years must be a minimum of six occasions larger than that produced by the brand new pure fuel capability whereas {the electrical} output by new wind capability can be greater than double that by fuel.
If FERC’s present “excessive chance” additions materialize, by Could 1, 2028, photo voltaic will account for one-sixth (16.6%) of the nation’s put in utility-scale producing capability. Wind would offer a further one-eighth (12.6%) of the overall. Thus, every can be larger than coal (12.2%) and considerably greater than both nuclear energy or hydropower (7.3% and seven.2% respectively).
In reality, assuming present development charges proceed, the put in capability of utility-scale photo voltaic is prone to surpass that of both coal or wind inside two years, putting photo voltaic in second place for put in producing capability — behind solely pure fuel.
The mixed capacities of all renewables, together with small-scale photo voltaic, might overtake pure fuel inside three years:
The combo of all utility-scale (i.e., >1-MW) renewables is now including about two share factors every year to its share of producing capability. At that tempo, by Could 1, 2028, renewables would account for three-eighths (37.7%) of complete out there put in utility-scale producing capability — quickly approaching that of pure fuel (40.1%). Photo voltaic and wind would represent greater than three-quarters of the put in renewable vitality capability. If these trendlines proceed, utility-scale renewable vitality capability ought to surpass that of pure fuel in 2029 or sooner.
Nonetheless, as famous FERC’s knowledge don’t account for the capability of small-scale photo voltaic methods. If that’s factored in, inside three years, complete U.S. photo voltaic capability (i.e., small-scale plus utility-scale) might exceed 300-GW. In flip, the combo of all renewables would then be about 40% of complete put in capability whereas pure fuel’ share would drop to about 38%.
Furthermore, FERC studies that there may very well be as a lot as 224,426 MW of web new photo voltaic additions within the present three-year pipeline along with 69,530 MW of latest wind, 9,072 MW of latest hydropower, 202 MW of latest geothermal and 39 MW of latest biomass. In contrast, web new pure fuel capability doubtlessly within the three-year pipeline totals simply 26,818 MW. Consequently, renewables’ share may very well be even larger by mid-spring 2028.
“The Trump Administration’s ‘Massive, Stunning Invoice’ now being debated by the Republican-controlled Congress poses a transparent risk to photo voltaic and wind within the years to return,” famous the SUN DAY Marketing campaign’s government director Ken Bossong. “Nonetheless, FERC’s newest knowledge and forecasts recommend cleaner and lower-cost renewable vitality sources should dominate and surpass nuclear energy, coal and pure fuel.”
Information merchandise from the SUN DAY Marketing campaign
