LONDON — Greater than three years into Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukrainians throughout the nation retreat every evening to bomb shelters and metro stations in a nightly ritual necessitated by the lengthy attain of Moscow’s drones and missiles. This summer season, Ukrainians are spending extra time in such shelters than ever earlier than.
The primary bombardments of Kyiv and different main cities started within the early morning of Feb. 24, 2022, as Russian troops surged throughout Ukraine’s borders on a number of axes. Within the years since, the assaults have by no means stopped.
By means of July, Russia launched a file 6,443 drones and missiles into the nation, in keeping with information revealed by the Ukrainian air drive. The full is the very best of the conflict thus far, and round 13% greater than had been recorded in June.
The dimensions and complexity of Russia’s drone and missile barrages have steadily elevated by the conflict. The Iranian-designed Shahed strike drone — adopted enthusiastically by the Russian navy and rebranded because the Geran — has turn out to be the workhorse of Moscow’s nightly harassment of Ukrainian cities and very important infrastructure.
For a lot of Ukrainians, the “flying mopeds,” because the Shahed and Geran variants have turn out to be recognized attributable to their distinctive sound, are emblematic of the Russian risk.
The strikes are terrorizing and lethal. June noticed the very best month-to-month degree of Ukrainian civilian casualties in additional than three years, in keeping with information revealed by the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine — 232 individuals killed and 1,343 individuals injured.
An explosion of a Russian drone is seen in Kyiv, Ukraine, on July 21, 2025.
Gleb Garanich/Reuters
Neither Russia nor Ukraine publish information detailing the dimensions of their very own strike campaigns. Ukraine’s air drive publishes a every day tally of Russian drone and missile strikes, whereas Russia’s Protection Ministry solely publishes figures of Ukrainian drones shot down.
July marked a high-water mark for Russian drone assaults on Ukraine. Information revealed by the Ukrainian air drive and analyzed by ABC Information recorded a complete of 6,245 assault and decoy drones launched into the nation over the previous month at a mean price of round 201 per day.
Russia additionally launched 198 missiles, with a mean of greater than six every day.
Although Ukraine’s interception price is important, loads of projectiles arrive with devastating impact. July noticed round 89% of drones and round 61% of missiles shot down or in any other case suppressed.
By comparability, June noticed 5,438 drones and 239 missiles fired into Ukraine, with a every day common of 181 drones and almost eight missiles. The air drive downed or suppressed 87.2% of all drones and 73% of missiles throughout June.
And in Could, Russia launched a complete of three,835 drones and 117 missiles, for a mean of round 124 drones and almost 4 missiles every day. Throughout the month, 85.7% of drones and 57% of missiles had been shot down or suppressed.
“Proper now, Ukraine sees round 300 to 400 drones attacking civilian targets each day — most of these numbers had been extraordinary in 2023 or 2024,” Yuriy Boyechko, the founder and CEO of the Hope for Ukraine charity, instructed ABC Information.
Moscow exhibits no signal of letting up. Russian officers and media have made a lot of the nation’s rising drone manufacturing capabilities. A current report by the Zvezda tv channel, for instance, confirmed operations at a Geran manufacturing facility in Alabuga in Russia’s Republic of Tatarstan, with employees developing and piling up dozens of assault drones prepared for supply.
The design of the assault drones is ever-evolving. The primary had been mild gray-colored craft flying low and comparatively sluggish to their targets, carrying high-explosive and fragmentation payloads and powered by generators.
Extra just lately, Geran variants painted black with particular materials to cover from radar fly greater and with tortuous routes to evade Ukrainian protection groups. Some are armed with thermobaric warheads, are armored and a few are powered by jet engines. Ukrainian defenders have additionally reported that current Gerans are utilizing AI focusing on techniques.
Russian forces could quickly be capable to launch 1,000 to 2,000 drones per day, in keeping with current warnings issued by the Institute for the Research of Struggle suppose tank and German Maj. Gen. Christian Freuding.
A person on a bicycle reads an data signal close to a Shahed, or Geran, drone displayed exterior the Ukrainian Ministry of Overseas Affairs in Kyiv on July 21, 2025.
Sergei Supinsky/AFP by way of Getty Pictures
Pasi Paroinen, an OSINT analyst on the Finland-based Black Chicken Group, instructed ABC Information he believes it possible that Russia may quickly launch 1,000 drones per evening.
The drone barrages are efficient and comparatively reasonably priced. Numerous estimates for the price of domestically-produced Gerans vary from round $10,000 to $50,000.
Although the Western sanctions marketing campaign has sophisticated Russian navy procurement efforts, parts from Western corporations are nonetheless discovered of their dozens in downed Gerans — a truth repeatedly highlighted by pissed off officers in Kyiv.
The combination of strike and decoy drones poses a “very nasty” drawback for Ukraine’s thinly-stretched air protection, Paroinen mentioned. “They’ve been doing fairly nicely intercepting them general. However it’s additionally tying up Ukrainian manpower — they need to have these teams of cellular anti-aircraft teams rolling across the countryside, taking pictures this stuff down.”
“The final consensus amongst analysts is that that is going to be a significant drawback,” Paroinen mentioned. “And this can be a manufacturing functionality that will not be going away, even when the conflict ends it’s going to nonetheless have implications for the remainder of Europe as nicely, that Russia will be capable to produce and stockpile these weapons in fairly intense numbers.”
President Donald Trump’s repeated interventions appear to even have failed to maneuver the needle. The president has repeatedly expressed his frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s continuation and enlargement of drone and missile strikes on Ukraine.
Putin, Trump mentioned earlier this month, “talks good after which bombs all people.”
Ukraine has used its personal fast-evolving drone arsenal to focus on drone manufacturing services deep inside Russia, however to little obvious avail.
Kyiv is growing the depth of its drone assaults into Russia. Throughout July, the Protection Ministry in Moscow reported downing 3,008 Ukrainian drones at a mean of round 97 per day.
In June, the ministry reported downing a complete of two,368 Ukrainian drones, with a mean of virtually 79 drones per day throughout the month. These figures had been down from Could, throughout which the ministry mentioned it shot down 3,611 drones with a mean of 116 per day.
Ukrainian servicemen hearth an anti-aircraft gun in the direction of a Russian drone throughout an air assault close to Pavlograd, in Dnipropetrovsk area on July 19, 2025.
Roman Pilipey/AFP by way of Getty Pictures
However, Paroinen mentioned, there may be little Ukraine can do about Russia’s rising drone manufacturing functionality. “It is sufficient away from the entrance traces that there will not be actually that many weapons that may attain it. Possibly some very long-range drones, however general, attempting to destroy such a manufacturing facility is past their means,” he mentioned.
“To take down a giant industrial complicated actually takes much more firepower and explosives than they’ll ship, even when they launch a whole lot of drones and have dozens of them hit the goal,” he continued. “It isn’t that simple — and normally the injury might be repaired fairly rapidly.”
