“No mountain or ocean can distance individuals who have shared aspirations,” China’s President Xi Jinping mentioned in July 2024, addressing leaders from fellow Shanghai Cooperation Organisation member states, and some different nations, in Astana, Kazakhstan.
On the time, the traditional Chinese language saying in Xi’s speech appeared excessive, and divorced from actuality: Narendra Modi, prime minister of India, one of many SCO’s main members, wasn’t even attending the grouping’s summit, citing a parliament session – an obvious snub to the bloc lengthy pushed by Beijing and Moscow.
But a yr later, the geopolitical panorama appears very completely different: As China prepares to host the annual SCO summit beginning Sunday, it’s anticipating a fuller home than ever of leaders from the area and past. Modi will go to China for the primary time since 2018, amid a rapprochement that started late final yr however has been propelled additional by United States President Donald Trump’s 50 p.c tariffs on Indian items, which have pressured New Delhi to hunt stronger partnerships with Beijing and different gamers in Eurasia.
At a time when a lot of the world is grappling with the chaos unleashed by Trump’s tariffs and threats, analysts anticipate the SCO conclave to function a platform for Xi to challenge his nation as a stabilising pressure, able to uniting the World South to counterbalance the West, notably the US.
China’s Assistant Overseas Minister Liu Bin informed a information convention in Beijing final week that the summit could be “one among China’s most necessary head-of-state and home-court diplomatic occasions this yr”.
The place is it and who’s attending?
This yr’s summit is about to happen from August 31 to September 1 in Tianjin, a northern Chinese language metropolis on the Bohai Sea.
Liu informed reporters that the summit will collect greater than 20 overseas leaders and the heads of 10 worldwide organisations.
They embrace leaders of SCO member states – India’s Modi, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Krygyz President Sadyr Japarov and Tajik President Emomali Rahmon.
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Myanmar’s navy chief Min Aung Hlaing, Nepal’s Prime Minister Ok P Sharma Oli, Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto, Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and the Maldives’ President Mohamed Muizzu are amongst different leaders anticipated to attend.
United Nations Secretary-Basic Antonio Guterres and the Affiliation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretary-Basic Kao Kim Hourn may even attend the Summit.
Is the SCO important?
The SCO initially began in 1996 as a safety bloc, dubbed the “Shanghai 5”. It was shaped by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to settle their border disputes following the tip of the Chilly Struggle and the collapse of the Soviet Union.
However in June 2001, the group advanced into the SCO, together with Uzbekistan, with headquarters in Beijing. In 2017, the group expanded to incorporate India and Pakistan. Iran in 2023 and Belarus in 2024 have been additionally added as full members.
As well as, the organisation has 14 key dialogue companions, together with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkiye, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Cambodia.
SCO member states account for 43 p.c of the world’s inhabitants, and 23 p.c – or virtually 1 / 4 – of the worldwide financial system.
However Alejandro Reyes, adjunct professor on the Division of Politics and Public Administration on the College of Hong Kong, informed Al Jazeera that the imaginative and prescient and id of the group stay unclear.
The US led most post-World Struggle II multilateral organisations – together with the United Nations, World Financial institution and Worldwide Financial Fund. However the finish of the Chilly Struggle and the emergence of economies akin to China, India, Brazil and South Africa have led to “diversification, if you’ll, of multilateralism, ensuing within the formation of organisations just like the BRICS in search of to present a voice to the World South”, Reyes mentioned. “So the SCO can also be a kind of new multilateral organisations.”
BRICS, the acronym derived from the initials of the founding member international locations: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, sees itself as a discussion board for the World South and in addition discusses geopolitics, world safety and commerce, amongst different world points.
However whereas the SCO emerged with a give attention to regional safety, the enlargement of its mandate to additionally focus on commerce and different World South issues means it’s obscure what units the grouping aside from organisations just like the BRICS, Reyes mentioned.
Manoj Kewalramani, chairperson of the Indo-Pacific Research Programme on the Takshashila Establishment in Bangalore, India, agreed with Reyes and mentioned the SCO is “nonetheless an organisation that’s in search of an id”.
“At this level of time, the id that they appear to be understanding is one thing across the idea of indivisible safety, which suggests the safety for one can not come at the price of the opposite,” he informed Al Jazeera.
Kewalramani identified that the SCO’s articulation of indivisible safety is, nonetheless, the exact opposite of the North Atlantic Treaty Group (NATO)’s imaginative and prescient.
“The NATO imaginative and prescient is bloc-based collective safety. The SCO imaginative and prescient is that everybody’s pursuits needs to be taken under consideration while addressing world points,” he mentioned.
“The SCO imaginative and prescient can also be an argument to the US, saying, ‘Look, you’re a main energy. We’re a serious world energy. You have to respect our pursuits inside at the least our peripheries.’ So that is an argument of spheres of affect.”
What makes this summit particularly related?
This yr’s summit comes amid Russia’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Israel’s genocide in Gaza and continued occupation of the West Financial institution, safety tensions in South Asia and the Asia Pacific area, and Trump’s world trade conflict.
With the world “clearly in deep flux”, Kewalramani mentioned, “you’re prone to see China or Russia particularly, make the case that the world is coming into an period of multipolarity and articulate indivisible safety as the best way ahead.
“The summit can also be important as a result of I feel that there’s a perception amongst many who multilateralism is dealing with existential threats due to the US’ insurance policies and that SCO international locations nonetheless stand for multilateralism and never for unilateralism,” Kewalramani added.
Reyes mentioned the importance additionally lies within the optics and symbolism of the summit with China because the host.
“It is a time when the US is burning bridges with virtually each nation. So in President Xi’s thoughts, it’s a good time for China to place itself as a world energy by showcasing it has productive relations with many international locations,” he mentioned. “China at all times tries to make mates the place it may possibly.”
Two days after the SCO summit ends, Beijing will on September 3 additionally host a serious military parade to commemorate the tip of World Struggle II in Asia. Lots of the leaders arriving for the SCO summit – akin to Putin, Lukashenko and Subianto – are anticipated to remain on for the parade. North Korean chief Kim Jong Un can also be anticipated to journey to Beijing for the occasion, which too might be “an enormous a part of this optic” of Xi internet hosting world leaders, Reyes mentioned.
What are the SCO’s positions on key points?
The grouping is commonly unable to agree on key geopolitical points.
As an illustration, on Russia’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the nation has been capable of get most SCO members to align with its pursuits, however India has tried to play a extra balanced position – in search of peace and stronger ties with Ukraine, whereas additionally shopping for file ranges of oil from Russia.
On Thursday, Ukraine’s Ministry of Overseas Affairs referred to as on SCO members to “categorical their clear place” and “present that they respect the ideas of worldwide legislation, don’t tolerate Russia’s conflict of aggression in opposition to Ukraine and the killing of Ukrainian kids”, at this yr’s summit.
Israel’s conflict in Gaza and navy offensives within the occupied West Financial institution, Lebanon and Iran have additionally divided the SCO.
When the group condemned Israel’s assault on Iran this yr, India – which additionally has robust ties with Israel – refused to endorse a joint assertion.
Friction additionally persists between India and fellow SCO member Pakistan, with New Delhi calling on the organisation to sentence cross-border terrorism, for which it blames Islamabad. In July, India demanded that the grouping condemn the April assault by gunmen in Indian-administered Kashmir, during which 26 individuals have been killed – New Delhi has accused Islamabad of being behind the assault, a cost that Pakistan has rejected.
When the SCO – whose choices work by consensus – didn’t conform to that demand, India refused to signal a joint assertion after a gathering of the grouping’s defence ministers.
Why are there divisions amongst SCO members?
In accordance with Kewalramani, “completely different international locations on the platform are there for various causes.
“For instance, the Central Asian international locations joined as a result of they’d safety issues and have been additionally eager to spice up financial engagement with China. For India, addressing terrorism within the area was key,” he mentioned.
Whereas Beijing seeks to show a united strategy at this yr’s summit, Reyes reiterated that symbolism is prone to trump any actually significant deliverables on the assembly.
“I doubt that this organisation is ready to get a lot deeper than simply the symbolism of gathering as a platform for the World South, as a platform for Russia and China to convene to current themselves as senior companions on this Eurasian landmass,” he mentioned.
“I feel what we’re going to see is extra concerning the optics of getting all these international locations collectively amid the US’ absence.”
What does this imply for the US?
Trump has been crucial of organisations from the World South. Up to now, he has threatened to cripple BRICS with focused tariffs in opposition to its members, calling the grouping “anti-American”.
Reyes mentioned the SCO Summit might be watched carefully by the US and will additionally set the tone for the Quad Summit later this yr, which India is about to host.
The Quad or Quadrilateral Safety Dialogue was established by India, Japan, Australia and the US in 2007 to counter China’s rising world affect within the Asia Pacific area. Over the previous quarter-century, India has grown nearer to the US and its allies, amid shared issues over Beijing’s rise.
However after Washington hit New Delhi with 50 p.c tariffs for importing crude oil from Russia amid the conflict in Ukraine, analysts anticipate the US to carefully watch Modi’s assembly with Xi in Tianjin, scheduled for Monday.
“The US might be notably watching the interplay between India and China, who’ve been attempting to resolve bilateral tensions, at this yr’s SCO Summit,” Reyes mentioned.
“Presently, amid US tariffs on India and the upcoming Quad Summit, it will likely be fascinating to see how Modi performs it,” he mentioned.
Kewalramani cautioned in opposition to concluding that the India-US relationship was damaged, even with their tensions over tariffs.
“These are mature economies who’ve shut relationships on many fronts. The US might be watching how not solely India but in addition Pakistan, Iran, and certainly Russia and China work together amongst themselves on the SCO Summit on a few of the key geopolitical points and commerce,” he mentioned.
“I’m certain the US will grasp the messages that they should grasp from the SCO Summit. It’s good for them to observe and take classes.”
