QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, we vastly admire your braveness, and it’s obvious that you’ve contacts that no one else has. You stated China takes 80% of Iran’s oil. I assume they get that by the Straits of Hormuz. If Iran have been to close down the Strait of Hormuz, wouldn’t that considerably impression their gross sales to China? You have got defined the Center East higher than anybody I’ve ever learn or watched on TV. Iran warned of “eternal penalties” after the U.S. bombed three main nuclear websites. I can see what you’re laying out: that that is the start fairly than the tip. Do you assume China or Russia will enter this battle quickly?
Bret
ANSWER: The explanation Iran can assault the Straits of Hormuz is that the media has unreported the completion of the China-Iran railway hyperlink, which is a big milestone inside China’s Belt and Highway Initiative (BRI), particularly reviving the traditional Silk Highway by fashionable infrastructure. By the best way, the traditional metropolis of Antioch turned so rich as a result of it served as a key hyperlink to the Silk Highway, the place all items entered the Greek and Roman world. The time period assumed the “PURPLE” was related to a Roman emperor as a result of it was a dye from Asia that arrived through Antioch. It was decreed that solely the emperor might put on it.
Antioch was the port metropolis in Syria. It was strategic all through historical past. I’ve defined, maybe not in nice element, however China has been reestablishing the traditional Silk Highway. Iran can shut down the Straits of Hormuz, and it’ll NOT impression the export of oil to China. The China-Iran railway hyperlink, a part of the broader China-Central Asia-West Asia Financial Hall, primarily depends on the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran (KTI) Railway as its important connector. The settlement was signed between China, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Iran, finalizing the KTI Railway settlement in 2013. The development started in December 2014. The primary direct freight prepare from China to Iran arrived in Tehran on February 15, 2016.
Now, have a look at this from a geopolitical perspective. You have got the Houthis attacking ships within the Crimson Sea. With this rail line, Iran can shut down the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthis maintain the strain on, stopping the site visitors by the Suez Canal. They’ve the power to impression the power movement out of the Center East considerably.
The Shia Muslims don’t management “most” of the oil within the Center East, although they dwell in areas with important reserves. Management is primarily held by nationwide governments and state-owned corporations, not by sects immediately. Nonetheless,
Saudi Arabia 267 billion barrels (17% od world confirmed reserves)
Iran 208 billion barrels (4th largest globally)
Iraq 145 billion barrels (fifth largest globally)
Kuwait 102 billion barrels reserves. Sunni-led monarchy
United Arab Emirates (UAE) 98 billion barrels reserves. Sunni-led federation.
Qatar Main fuel producer, additionally has oil. Sunni-led monarchy.
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, and Qatar (all Sunni-led monarchies) maintain a considerably bigger portion of the area’s confirmed oil reserves mixed than Iran and Iraq. Nonetheless, the Shia-Majority Areas are Vital. Iran and southern Iraq (Shia heartland) have huge reserves and are essential producers. Iran is a founding member of OPEC. Whereas management is nationwide, not sectarian, this may be risky in instances of warfare, as we noticed through the Nineteen Seventies.
What I consider is critical right here is the railway between China and Iran. The first rail hall connecting China to Iran turned totally operational lately. Trains now run usually from varied Chinese language cities (like Yiwu, Xi’an) by Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, terminating in Tehran. The ultimate part crossing Turkmenistan into Iran was finalized, making the whole route viable. This now facilitates considerably bigger volumes of commerce between Iran and China. China exports electronics, equipment, textiles, and industrial items. Iran exports petrochemicals, minerals, agricultural merchandise (like saffron, pistachios), and probably extra oil/fuel sooner or later (although sanctions complicate this).
This offers China with an important overland path to entry Center Japanese markets and assets, decreasing dependence on weak sea lanes just like the Strait of Malacca. It additionally provides Iran a significant various commerce hall, mitigating the impression of Western sanctions and decreasing its isolation. Entry to the huge Chinese language market and Eurasian rail community is essential.
Remember that this has now launched a geopolitical alignment between Iran and China. Each China and Iran are appearing as a counterbalance to US affect within the area. It integrates Iran extra firmly into China’s Eurasian connectivity imaginative and prescient. This railway is now a important nationwide safety situation for China.
The US sanctions on Iran stay a big hurdle. Worldwide banks and firms are cautious of facilitating transactions, limiting the route’s full potential. China makes use of workarounds, however sanctions create friction and threat. They’ve solely additional divided the world financial system, giving the motivation for the institution of BRICS, which has undermined the worldwide financial system as a complete, dividing the world in half, all for the geopolitical instigation of the Neocons.
China has certainly accomplished and operationalized main rail hyperlinks to Iran through Central Asia. This represents a transformative achievement for the Belt and Highway Initiative, providing a sooner, land-based commerce artery between East Asia and the Center East. Whereas challenges similar to sanctions and logistical hurdles persist, the hyperlink considerably boosts commerce, offers Iran with an financial lifeline, strengthens Sino-Iranian ties, and enhances Eurasian connectivity. It’s a concrete realization of the trendy Silk Highway imaginative and prescient. The Neocons have dominated American overseas coverage, and so they have NEVER given financial coverage a second thought.
I used to be the primary advertiser to assist Invoice Kristol launch The Weekly Normal. We took the again cowl each week, till I spotted he was NOT an financial conservative, he was a Neocon. They have been centered purely on the geopolitical facets of redesigning the Center East and defeating Russia and China. I don’t communicate from hypothesis. I had a front-row seat to the plans and targets that by no means took into consideration the worldwide financial system. That is what created BRICS – their vanity. I’ve even attended White Home dinners.
