In 2026, we gained’t see terrorism incidents much like 9/11, when hijacked airplanes struck the World Commerce Heart, or the Oklahoma Metropolis bombing, when ammonium nitrate–packed vans leveled federal buildings. As a substitute, the subsequent act of terror will start with the buzzing sound of the drone rotors spinning at 5,000 rpm, audible solely seconds earlier than the swarm will attain its goal.
Lately, drones have grow to be an integral a part of fashionable warfare. On the battlefield, we have undeniably entered the age of precise mass in battle, the place low-cost attributable drones, powered by extensively accessible industrial know-how, open software program, and AI, at the moment are essentially the most effective weapons. They are often hidden in plain sight after which launched to destroy targets 1000’s of miles away from energetic battlefields. In June 2025, for example, they have been utilized by Ukraine to destroy 10 percent of Russia’s bombers on the tarmac as a part of Operation Spider Net. That very same month, Israel additionally launched clandestine drone attacks from inside Iran to destroy navy and nuclear websites. In April, Houthi rebels used drones and cruise missiles to assault the USS Harry Truman—a Nimitz-class plane provider—within the Crimson Sea. The provider swerved so hard to keep away from being struck, it tumbled a $56 million F-18 off its deck.
It’s sure that in 2026 we are going to see a drone assault in the US, towards both civilian or navy targets.
Just like the assaults of 9/11, the shock will prove not to be a surprise. The offensive and defensive energy of low-cost industrial drones was recognized by the US navy as early as 2017. In that yr, Protection Innovation Unit, the Pentagon’s Silicon Valley Workplace, established the navy’s first industrial drone unit, with the help of the then–secretary of protection James Mattis. Named Rogue Squadron, it carried out mock drone fights in parking tons and created the primary mass adoption program throughout the navy for industrial drones, known as Blue UAS (unmanned aerial system).
But in the present day, due to bureaucratic inertia and the accelerating drone functionality by international adversaries, the US stands defenseless. Presently, no US navy set up can reliably repel a fancy drone assault like Ukraine’s assault of Russian nuclear bombers. Our civilian infrastructure is even much less protected.
But the 2025 DoD price range has just $350M for tactical level UAS systems. With this funding, DoD is barely anticipating to subject about 4,000 UASs, bringing the typical value per system near $100,000. The bigger drone factories in Ukraine can produce 1000’s of “first individual viewer” (FPV) drones per day, at a value of some hundred {dollars} a bit. The Ukrainian navy delivers to the battlefield 200,000 FPV drones per thirty days and plans to increase manufacturing to 4,500,000 FPV drones per yr by the top this yr.
