The US and Israel have launched a battle of aggression towards Iran, based mostly on lies. We’re all now in deep, uncharted waters.
A younger Iranian lady holds a rustic flag throughout a protest to sentence the US assaults on Iran’s nuclear services in downtown Tehran, Iran, on June 22, 2025.
(Morteza Nikoubazl / NurPhoto by way of Getty Photographs)
Within the early hours of June 22, what the world had feared for many years—the factor that had been warned towards because the one motion that might set the Center East absolutely alight—lastly occurred. American stealth bombers, armed with practically 30,000-pound bunker busters, struck Iran’s nuclear services, casting us all into deep, uncharted waters.
In the long run, the strike was resulting from circumstances many had lengthy foreseen—with Israel launching a battle with Iran after which pulling the USA into the following storm. Donald Trump, for all his “America First” posturing, proved to be easily malleable for Benjamin Netanyahu, Fox Information, and the neocons lurking round Washington, going from hesitating to become involved to demanding Iran’s “unconditional give up” in only a few days. “God Bless Israel” even got here earlier than “God Bless America” within the president’s speech asserting these strikes.
The shock of our new regular nonetheless lingers, however this was at all times coming. Like a pot being delivered to a gradual boil, the previous two years of regional battle—from the US-backed genocide in Gaza to Israel’s assaults on virtually all of its neighbors—have damaged previous practically each beforehand present regulation of battle, each purple line, each seeming shred of rational pondering shielding the Center East from the precipice of complete catastrophe. In line with such a wretched development, a major American assault on Iranian soil, carried out after the US brazenly deceived the nation throughout alleged nuclear negotiations, ought to have been seen as an inevitability.
Even on the earth of US intelligence, the consensus has long been, and continues to be, that Iran doesn’t have a nuclear weapons program. It had signed as much as a nuclear deal to complement at civilian ranges in the course of the Obama administration that Trump then tore up in his first time period. It had been in negotiations with the US and Israel—the latter of which really has hidden a nuclear weapons program from the world (and IAEA inspectors) for many years—when these two states launched this battle. However within the aftermath of the US strikes, America’s unparalleled potential to show actuality on its head was on full show.
Present Difficulty
When his personal director of nationwide intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, echoed the conclusions of the intelligence group, Trump said plainly that he “didn’t care.” Afterward, Trump said, even after he unilaterally attacked one other nation with out congressional authorization, that “NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE!” In his deal with to the nation, Trump once more referred to as on Iran to “make peace” in a battle that Israel had began and America had now accelerated.
Iran had been advised to give up its sovereign, internationally acknowledged proper to complement uranium in trade for zero sanctions reduction by “negotiations.” It refused. Now, after being shaken by bombs and homicide, Iran was being advised, explicitly, to give up once more. It’s once more refusing.
International Minister Abbas Araghchi has said that Iran reserves the suitable to a “official response in self-defense.” President Masoud Pezeshkian joined crowds of demonstrators in Tehran demanding a response to the American assaults. Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei, hidden away in a secret location to keep away from an assassination strike, has but to remark however is unlikely to abruptly resolve to acquiesce.
Nonetheless, even because the Iranian institution stays united as ever on the query of Iran’s proper to reply to such aggression, what it will probably do on this second is way much less outlined.
Iran now stands at an undeniably troublesome crossroads. It’s being provided a cursed off-ramp: a possibility to save lots of face, because it did following the October 2024 assaults by Israel. Then, the Iranian state was fast to brush off the assaults, dismissing them as insubstantial. 4 Iranian troopers had been killed, however the pledge of a certain retaliation felt like reflex fairly than a promise.
Right here, the stakes are far bigger on both facet of the equation. A whole lot of Iranians have up to now been killed, and Israel and Iran are constantly exchanging missiles. Iran’s nuclear services at Fordow and Natanz lie severely broken, although admittedly not utterly “obliterated” in the way in which Trump first claimed. The US has already declared an enormous victory, and Israel says that it hopes the battle will finish this week. The Iranian media initially tried to assert injury was extra restricted at Fordow and that individuals in close by Qom had been unaffected, at the same time as anchors on state TV promised extreme retaliation that will make “the fires in Los Angeles” seem like nothing, and as Qom’s consultant in parliament requested Trump to start making coffins for the American troopers who would make sure to quickly die.
Regardless of all these threats, Iran should function inside the actuality that a lot US propaganda seeks to obscure: that it’s a non-nuclear nation combating two nuclear-armed states, together with probably the most highly effective army within the historical past of the world. An prolonged capturing battle with the USA, regardless of how a lot its army has educated for this, is a extreme danger, to say the least. In trying to keep away from this, Iran arguably has no good choices.
If it acts on its earlier guarantees to satisfy American strikes with strikes on American bases across the area, additional and extra devastating American involvement is nearly assured. If it strikes to as an alternative shut the vital waterway of the Strait of Hormuz, as former cupboard ministers and nationwide newspapers at the moment are advocating, earlier American army guarantees to maintain the strait open by power would undeniably be introduced again to the fore. If it chooses extra dramatic diplomatic strikes, like withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty that forbids nuclear weapons (as many parliamentarians at the moment are advocating), there isn’t a indication that the Iranian authorities would even pursue the logical end result of that call. IRGC Maj. Gen. Mohsen Rezaee and President Pezeshkian have signaled that they nonetheless won’t ever search nuclear weapons due to Khamenei’s fatwa towards these weapons.
If Iran does resolve to retaliate and America turns into much more concerned, in no matter kind that will take, the international allies that Iran may name to its help are usually not what they was once, pre–October 7. The late Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah as soon as promised that “battle towards Iran would imply battle towards all the Resistance Axis.” Nasrallah has now been assassinated by Israel, and Hezbollah, as soon as Iran’s strongest non-state ally, is now not ready to intervene, advocating as an alternative that individuals increase their voices towards the battle.
Houthi army officers introduced earlier than the strikes that they might restart their Purple Sea blockade towards American industrial vessels and strike American warships if America entered the battle towards Iran. Although one in every of their spokespeople at first mentioned following the strikes that the brink had been crossed, the risk appeared to have been walked again a number of hours later when it grew to become clear that Iran had not requested them to do this on its behalf simply but.
There have been sparks of the form of collective retaliation promised in battles previous: Iraqi teams have promised reprisals towards American bases inside their very own nation, and even South Asian teams like Liwa Fatemiyoun have vowed to assault Western pursuits in Pakistan ought to Khamenei be assassinated, as has been beforehand threatened by Israeli officers and by Trump himself. As for what these teams can really do now, one can’t escape the popularity that it pales compared to what may very well be executed earlier than the so-called Axis of Resistance started to crumble final 12 months.
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This results in the query of what might happen if Iran, by nevertheless unlikely an opportunity, chooses “peace”—that’s to say “peace” within the Trumpian parlance. Iran would doubtless be placed on the trail to eliminating all of its nuclear capabilities below American supervision, with no promise of sanctions reduction, and with not even the assure of a true-blue ceasefire. As within the supposed ceasefires with Gaza and Lebanon, Israel has had the power to proceed to strike unilaterally, typically each day, at something it perceives to be a risk, whereas the opposite social gathering has no recourse in anyway. In the meantime, Israel prepares to provoke one other battle towards a now way more weakened and remoted enemy.
Iran could also be shopping for time to determine its subsequent transfer, however the clock is ticking. The drums of additional battle are already starting to beat as American media shops conjure up fantasies of Iranian “sleeper cells” working round the USA, and Vice President JD Vance saying that Iran’s uranium stockpile, unaffected by these strikes, will have to be handled “within the coming weeks.” Vance insists that these will probably be handled by “conversations with the Iranians.” Iran’s latest historical past with such conversations doesn’t encourage a lot belief.
Ultimately, Iran’s ballistic missile provides will run low, with its manufacturing interrupted and its army nonetheless below fixed hearth. In imposed conflicts, hardly ever does the nation battle has been imposed on have many good choices. In Iran’s case, not solely can it not belief the People however it can’t belief Europe, whose nations are additionally now demanding zero enrichment, both. The nation is now being pressured in report time to rethink its regional alliances, its army technique, and its outlook for the longer term. No matter what occurs within the subsequent few weeks, nothing would be the similar. Regardless of the troublesome decisions for Iran, and the Center East, which might be forward, some Houthi officers stay optimistic. Abdul-Malik al-Ejri, a political bureau official, wrote on X the evening after the American assaults:
There are deep-rooted adjustments within the construction of the worldwide and regional order that no political power, regardless of how highly effective or tyrannical, can cease. Sure, they’ll destroy and devastate, they could be hindered or delayed for years, however they won’t cease. Nice empires have tried to halt historic transformations on the peak of their supremacy, however historical past’s crafty was at all times stronger.”
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Katrina vanden Heuvel
Writer, The Nation
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