Unlock the Editor’s Digest at no cost
Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favorite tales on this weekly e-newsletter.
UK inflation was overstated by 0.1 proportion factors in April owing to an error in tax figures supplied by a authorities division, the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics mentioned on Thursday.
Annual inflation was 3.4 per cent, in accordance with the corrected knowledge, moderately than the three.5 per cent initially estimated. Economists polled by Reuters had anticipated a price of three.3 per cent, sharply up from 2.6 per cent in March.
The ONS mentioned an error had been recognized “in an extract of the licensed autos knowledge supplied . . . by the Division for Transport, used to calculate the April 2025 Car Excise Obligation element of client costs inflation”.
It mentioned the inaccurate knowledge had overstated the variety of autos topic to VED charges relevant within the first yr of registration.
“No different intervals are affected . . . The ONS shall be utilizing the accurately weighted knowledge from Could 2025’s figures onwards. The DfT’s revealed official statistics are unaffected,” it added.
The ONS mentioned the error was remoted to at least one set of knowledge used to calculate the VED index.
“Nonetheless,” it added, “the ONS is reviewing its high quality assurance processes for exterior knowledge sources in gentle of this concern.”
The ONS has come below intense scrutiny over the reliability of its knowledge, as long-running issues with a key labour market survey have raised doubts over key indicators resembling unemployment, inactivity and productiveness. Errors have additionally been present in its commerce knowledge.
Final month, the pinnacle of the statistics service Sir Ian Diamond stepped down citing “ongoing well being points” after a government-commissioned evaluation launched an investigation in April into the management, tradition and construction of the ONS.
The Financial institution of England has been vocal about its difficulties in deciding the trail for financial coverage amid excessive uncertainty over official knowledge.
BoE governor Andrew Bailey, when requested on the Home of Commons Treasury committee on Tuesday concerning the affect of confidence in official knowledge on the financial institution’s financial policymaking, mentioned: “It does have a bearing on it’.
“We actually spend extra time on it, and that’s clearly what we should always do, given the uncertainty.”
On productiveness knowledge that confirmed a contraction over the course of 2024, Bailey informed the committee there was “a puzzle”.
Normally, he mentioned, “destructive productiveness development is related to fairly severe recessions. We didn’t have that final yr. So there’s a puzzle there . . . over precisely what the image is, what the info are telling us”.
In April, the ONS mentioned it might cut back its work in some key coverage areas — together with the measurement of public sector productiveness and crime in opposition to kids — to concentrate on core financial statistics.
