The U.S. photo voltaic trade put in practically 18 GW of recent capability within the first half of 2025. Even because the Trump Administration rolled out a sequence of anti-clean vitality insurance policies, photo voltaic and storage nonetheless accounted for 82% of all new energy added to the grid in its first six months.
HR1 and up to date Trump Administration actions focusing on photo voltaic have considerably decreased deployment forecasts. The low-case forecast within the “U.S. Solar Market Insight Q3 2025” report from the Photo voltaic Vitality Industries Affiliation (SEIA) and Wooden Mackenzie warns that these insurance policies put the US susceptible to dropping 44 GW of photo voltaic deployment by 2030, an 18% decline. When in comparison with pre-HR1 forecasts, the US is susceptible to dropping a complete of 55 GW of photo voltaic deployment by 2030, a 21% decline.
“Photo voltaic and storage are the spine of America’s vitality future, delivering nearly all of new energy to the grid on the lowest value to households and companies,” mentioned Abigail Ross Hopper, SEIA president and CEO. “As a substitute of unleashing this American financial engine, the Trump Administration is intentionally stifling funding, which is elevating vitality prices for households and companies, and jeopardizing the reliability of our electrical grid. However it doesn’t matter what insurance policies this administration releases, the photo voltaic and storage trade will proceed to develop, as a result of the market is demanding what we’re delivering: dependable, inexpensive, American-made vitality.”
The report finds that 77% of all photo voltaic capability put in this 12 months has been inbuilt states gained by President Donald Trump, together with eight of the highest 10 states for brand new photo voltaic installations: Texas, Indiana, Arizona, Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Kentucky and Arkansas.
The US added 13 GW of recent photo voltaic module manufacturing capability within the first half of 2025 with new or expanded factories in Texas, Indiana and Minnesota. At this time the US has 55 GW of complete photo voltaic module manufacturing capability. Nonetheless, there was no new upstream manufacturing funding in Q2 as federal insurance policies threaten to stall U.S. photo voltaic manufacturing momentum and threat billions of {dollars} of personal capital.
The report exhibits that photo voltaic deployment is anticipated to be 4% decrease than the pre-HR1 base case by 2030. Close to-term deployment is bolstered by tasks already underway, a rush to satisfy tax credit score deadlines and rising demand for energy as new gasoline technology turns into costlier and fewer out there.
The low case forecast particulars how current govt actions may injury the trade. In line with the report, the Dept. of the Inside’s actions are anticipated to affect roughly 44 GW of deliberate photo voltaic capability, with Arizona, California and Nevada most affected.
“There’s appreciable draw back threat for the photo voltaic trade if the federal allowing setting creates extra constraints for photo voltaic tasks,” mentioned Michelle Davis, head of photo voltaic analysis at Wooden Mackenzie. “The photo voltaic trade is already navigating dramatic coverage adjustments because of HR1. Additional uncertainty from federal coverage actions is making the enterprise setting for the photo voltaic trade extremely difficult.”
SEIA wrote to DOI Sec. Doug Burgum final month imploring that if not reversed, these govt actions will end in misplaced jobs and elevated electrical energy costs. Final week, SEIA launched a grid reliability policy agenda that outlines actions that native, state and federal leaders can take to strengthen the reliability of America’s electrical grid with photo voltaic and storage applied sciences.
Information merchandise from SEIA
